CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Malachi Toney WR

Miami vs Pittsburgh · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

109.5 Rec Yds O -105U —

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 126.3
Graph avg: 99.9
Graph median: 105.016–234
Over the close: 70%7/10

2026 per game

Rec8.3▲+1.5

Rec Yds126.3▲+50.6

Rec TD1.3▲+0.7

109.5

2025

22

Dec 20
16

Dec 31
81

Jan 08
122

Jan 19
2026

234

Sep 04
96

Sep 10
114

Sep 18
120

Sep 26
40

Oct 03
154

Oct 17
?

Oct 24

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 109.5

Home 27% 3/11 · avg 81.0
Away 46% 5/11 · avg 98.0
vs Pittsburgh 100% 1/1 · avg 126.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 89.5 60% 6/10
O 99.5 50% 5/10
O 109.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 119.5 40% 4/10
O 129.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs Pittsburgh

What Pittsburgh allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds235.1#29
Receptions17.0#47
Yds/Rec13.8#52
Rec TD1.8#50

WRs vs Pittsburgh · 2026

Each main WR who faced Pittsburgh this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-9.7

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 17	John Montague	54	50.0	+8%
Oct 17	Dawson Pough	22	39.5	-44%
Oct 10	Jordan Shipp	93	69.6	+34%
Oct 10	Jelani Thurman	29	57.0	-49%
Oct 02	Que'Sean Brown	147	78.2	+88%
Oct 02	Luke Reynolds	93	59.3	+57%
Sep 17	Umari Hatcher	58	145.2	-60%
Sep 17	Justus Ross-Simmons	25	36.2	-31%
Sep 12	Joshua Derry	9	59.0	-85%
Sep 12	Waden Charles	41	39.5	+4%
Sep 05	Maleek Huggins	23	57.2	-60%
Sep 05	Lynel Billups-Williams	31	51.0	-39%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 109.5	Close
2026-10-17	7	vs Florida State	154	Over	105.5
2026-10-03	5	@ Clemson	40	Under	100.5
2026-09-26	4	vs Central Michigan	120	Over	112.5
2026-09-18	3	@ Wake Forest	114	Over	99.5
2026-09-10	2	vs Florida A&M	96	Under	108.5
2026-09-04	1	@ Stanford	234	Over	73.5
2026-01-19	1 (P)	@ Indiana	122	Over	60.5
2026-01-08	1 (P)	@ Ole Miss	81	Under	61.5
2025-12-31	1 (P)	@ Ohio State	16	Under	65.5
2025-12-20	1 (P)	@ Texas A&M	22	Under	15.5

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 103.5Underdog 103.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 16m ago.