CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Reece Vander Zee WR

Iowa vs Minnesota · Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds O -130U —

Hit rate · Last 10 80%8/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 41.2
Graph avg: 38.3
Graph median: 34.04–69
Over the close: 80%8/10

2026 per game

Rec2.7▲+0.8

Rec Yds41.2▲+13.8

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

29.5

2025

4

Nov 15
46

Nov 22
53

Nov 28
33

Dec 31
2026

32

Sep 05
32

Sep 12
13

Sep 19
66

Sep 26
35

Oct 03
69

Oct 09
?

Oct 24

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 50% 4/8 · avg 26.5
Away 67% 4/6 · avg 42.3
vs Minnesota 0% 0/1 · avg 29.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 80% 8/10
O 24.5 80% 8/10
O 29.5 Today 80% 8/10
O 34.5 50% 5/10
O 39.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs Minnesota

What Minnesota allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds198.7#99
Receptions16.0#74
Yds/Rec12.4#114
Rec TD1.0#154

WRs vs Minnesota · 2026

Each main WR who faced Minnesota this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-18.4

Avg diff %-27%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 10	Asaad Waseem	19	94.8	-80%
Oct 10	Xavier Townsend	8	60.3	-87%
Oct 03	JJ Buchanan	50	86.4	-42%
Oct 03	Andrew Marsh	29	52.0	-44%
Sep 26	Chris Lawson	77	67.7	+14%
Sep 26	Dezmen Roebuck	87	66.2	+31%
Sep 19	Marcel Williams	13	56.2	-77%
Sep 19	Kyan Mason	32	28.8	+11%
Sep 12	Anthony Evans III	121	98.6	+23%
Sep 12	Sanfrisco Magee	42	50.6	-17%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close
2026-10-09	6	@ Washington	69	Over	23.5
2026-10-03	5	vs Ohio State	35	Over	23.5
2026-09-26	4	@ Michigan	66	Over	17.5
2026-09-19	3	vs Northern Iowa	13	Under	33.5
2026-09-12	2	vs Iowa State	32	Over	19.5
2026-09-05	1	vs Northern Illinois	32	Over	26.5
2025-12-31	1 (P)	@ Vanderbilt	33	Over	22.5
2025-11-28	14	@ Nebraska	53	Over	17.5
2025-11-22	13	vs Michigan State	46	Over	15.5
2025-11-15	12	@ USC	4	Under	14.5

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 16m ago.