CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kyler Kasper WR

BYU vs UCF · Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

40.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 38%3/8 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 40.7
Graph avg: 36.9
Graph median: 40.011–66
Over the close: 50%2/4

2026 per game

Rec3.3▲+2.3

Rec Yds40.7▲+15.2

Rec TD0.5▲+0.5

40.5

2025

40

Aug 30
11

Sep 13
2026

42

Sep 05
51

Sep 12
23

Sep 19
22

Oct 03
40

Oct 09
66

Oct 17
?

Oct 24

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 40.5

Home 60% 3/5 · avg 47.8
Away 0% 0/3 · avg 18.7
vs UCF No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 30.5 62% 5/8
O 35.5 62% 5/8
O 40.5 Today 38% 3/8
O 45.5 25% 2/8
O 50.5 25% 2/8

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs UCF

What UCF allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds213.2#64
Receptions17.2#44
Yds/Rec12.4#119
Rec TD1.1#146

WRs vs UCF · 2026

Each main WR who faced UCF this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-22.5

Avg diff %-33%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 10	Wyatt Young	52	101.8	-49%
Oct 10	Justin Bowick	98	74.2	+32%
Oct 03	Amare Thomas	43	74.0	-42%
Oct 03	Patrick Overmyer	76	59.2	+28%
Sep 26	Ed Small	41	90.6	-55%
Sep 26	Kari Ashley	43	69.8	-38%
Sep 19	Rodshaun Dorsey	32	60.2	-47%
Sep 19	Derrick Avery Jr.	4	46.8	-91%
Sep 12	Cataurus Hicks	64	72.7	-12%
Sep 12	Malik Knight	20	48.3	-59%

Game log · 8 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 40.5	Close
2026-10-17	7	vs Notre Dame	66	Over	33.5
2026-10-09	6	vs Iowa State	40	Under	37.5
2026-10-03	5	@ TCU	22	Under	45.5
2026-09-19	3	@ Colorado State	23	Under	47.5
2026-09-12	2	vs Arizona	51	Over	—
2026-09-05	1	vs Utah Tech	42	Over	—
2025-09-13	3	@ Northwestern	11	Under	—
2025-08-30	1	vs Montana State	40	Under	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 40.5Underdog 40.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 18m ago.