CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Chris Lofton WR

Appalachian State vs James Madison · Thu Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET

19.5 Rec Yds O -125U —

Hit rate · Last 10 80%4/5 Odds imply —

Season avg: 34.8
Graph avg: 34.8
Graph median: 25.06–90
Over the close: 0%0/1

2026 per game

Rec2.8

Rec Yds34.8

Rec TD0.2

19.5

2026

33

Sep 12
90

Sep 19
25

Sep 26
20

Oct 10
6

Oct 16
?

Oct 22

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 100% 2/2 · avg 55.0
Away 67% 2/3 · avg 21.3
vs James Madison No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 9.5 80% 4/5
O 14.5 80% 4/5
O 19.5 Today 80% 4/5
O 24.5 60% 3/5
O 29.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs James Madison

What James Madison allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds183.4#130
Receptions14.5#123
Yds/Rec12.6#104
Rec TD1.3#113

WRs vs James Madison · 2026

Each main WR who faced James Madison this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-14.4

Avg diff %-18%

Beat their average25% (3/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 17	Rodshaun Dorsey	57	55.2	+3%
Oct 17	Derrick Avery Jr.	12	44.8	-73%
Oct 10	Alex Taylor	24	53.0	-55%
Oct 10	River Helms	33	43.3	-24%
Oct 03	De'Andre Tamarez	10	67.0	-85%
Oct 03	Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw	24	60.0	-60%
Sep 26	TJ Johnson	105	31.4	+234%
Sep 26	Josh Rodriguez	7	30.7	-77%
Sep 19	Jaylon Hawkins	6	50.7	-88%
Sep 19	Jacob Bostick	4	29.3	-86%
Sep 05	Makai Jackson	73	88.4	-17%
Sep 05	Jamari Person	49	23.4	+109%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 19.5	Close
2026-10-16	7	@ Coastal Carolina	6	Under	—
2026-10-10	6	vs Old Dominion	20	Over	—
2026-09-26	4	@ NC State	25	Over	44.5
2026-09-19	3	vs Charlotte	90	Over	—
2026-09-12	2	@ East Carolina	33	Over	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 20.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 16m ago.