CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

MJ Dowdy RB

Sam Houston vs New Mexico State · Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET

48.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 33%1/3 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 37.3
Graph avg: 37.3
Graph median: 42.015–55
Over the close: 100%1/1

2026 per game

Carries9.3

Rush Yds37.3

Rush TD0.0

Rec0.0

Rec Yds0.0

48.5

2026

15

Sep 19
42

Oct 08
55

Oct 14
?

Oct 22

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 48.5

Home 50% 1/2 · avg 35.0
Away 0% 0/1 · avg 42.0
vs New Mexico State No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 38.5 67% 2/3
O 43.5 33% 1/3
O 48.5 Today 33% 1/3
O 53.5 33% 1/3
O 58.5 0% 0/3

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs New Mexico State

What New Mexico State allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rush Yds143.0#83
Yds/Carry5.1#95
Rush TD1.6#61
Carries27.9#75
Rec Yds21.9#131

RBs vs New Mexico State · 2026

Each main RB who faced New Mexico State this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.4

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 07	Anthony Carrie	37	44.2	-16%
Oct 01	Ajay Allen	17	52.5	-68%
Sep 26	Scottre Humphrey	104	63.6	+64%
Sep 12	Devon Rice	59	42.5	+39%
Aug 29	Ousmane Kromah	115	82.3	+40%

Game log · 3 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 48.5	Close
2026-10-14	7	vs Western Kentucky	55	Over	24.5
2026-10-08	6	@ Liberty	42	Under	—
2026-09-19	3	vs Nicholls	15	Under	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 48.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 19m ago.