CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bear Bachmeier QB

BYU vs UCF · Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

39.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 47.3
Graph avg: 33.2
Graph median: 33.5-3–109
Over the close: 33%3/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds209.5▼-7.1

Att25.3▼-2.3

Cmp%65.8%▲+0.9

Pass TD1.5▲+0.4

INT0.3▼-0.2

Rush Yds47.3▲+9.7

39.5

2025

46

Nov 22
4

Nov 29
-2

Dec 06
0

Dec 27
2026

30

Sep 05
37

Sep 12
-3

Sep 19
66

Oct 03
109

Oct 09
45

Oct 17
?

Oct 24

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 39.5

Home 46% 5/11 · avg 39.1
Away 56% 5/9 · avg 42.3
vs UCF 0% 0/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 60% 6/10
O 34.5 50% 5/10
O 39.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 44.5 40% 4/10
O 49.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs UCF

What UCF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 183 defenses.

Pass Yds239.9#52
Yds/Att7.5#104
Cmp%64.5%#84
Pass TD1.2#147
Pass Att32.1#36

QBs vs UCF · 2026

Each main QB who faced UCF this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.4

Avg diff %-178%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 10	Drew Mestemaker	2	28.0	-93%
Oct 03	Conner Weigman	50	29.8	+68%
Sep 26	Jaden Craig	-16	2.4	-767%
Sep 19	Cameran Brown	17	33.2	-49%
Sep 12	Mason Heintschel	13	24.8	-47%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 39.5	Close
2026-10-17	7	vs Notre Dame	45	Over	37.5
2026-10-09	6	vs Iowa State	109	Over	49.5
2026-10-03	5	@ TCU	66	Over	33.5
2026-09-19	3	@ Colorado State	-3	Under	32.5
2026-09-12	2	vs Arizona	37	Under	40.5
2026-09-05	1	vs Utah Tech	30	Under	—
2025-12-27	1 (P)	vs Georgia Tech	0	Under	42.5
2025-12-06	15	@ Texas Tech	-2	Under	30.5
2025-11-29	14	vs UCF	4	Under	54.5
2025-11-22	13	@ Cincinnati	46	Over	49.5

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 39.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.