CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Daylyn Upshaw WR

Miami vs Pittsburgh · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O +118U -158

Hit rate · Last 10 · vs Pittsburgh 0%0/1 Odds imply 42.8% Over

Season avg: 2.8
Graph avg: 1.0
Graph median: 1.01–1

2026 per game

Rec2.8▲+1.4

Rec Yds36.7▲+15.7

Rec TD0.3▲+0.3

3.5

2025

1

Nov 29
?

Oct 24

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 17% 1/6 · avg 2.0
Away 20% 1/5 · avg 2.4
vs Pittsburgh 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 0% 0/1
O 2.5 0% 0/1
O 3.5 Today 0% 0/1
O 4.5 0% 0/1
O 5.5 0% 0/1

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · receivers vs Pittsburgh

What Pittsburgh allowed to receivers per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 185 defenses.

Rec Yds235.1#29
Receptions17.0#47
Yds/Rec13.8#52
Rec TD1.8#50

WRs vs Pittsburgh · 2026

Each main WR who faced Pittsburgh this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average67% (8/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 17	Javarius Green	5	3.6	+39%
Oct 17	John Montague	3	2.7	+13%
Oct 10	Jordan Shipp	6	5.4	+11%
Oct 10	Jelani Thurman	6	4.0	+50%
Oct 02	Que'Sean Brown	7	6.5	+8%
Oct 02	Luke Reynolds	7	6.0	+17%
Sep 17	Umari Hatcher	3	9.4	-68%
Sep 17	Justus Ross-Simmons	1	2.8	-64%
Sep 12	Joshua Derry	2	5.2	-62%
Sep 12	Dylan Wade	2	3.0	-33%
Sep 05	Lynel Billups-Williams	4	3.6	+11%
Sep 05	Maleek Huggins	3	2.8	+7%

Game log · 1 game

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close
2025-11-29	14	@ Pittsburgh	1	Under	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 8m ago.