CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kevin Jennings QB

SMU vs California · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET

299.5 Pass Yds O +115U —

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 25%2/8 Odds imply —

Season avg: 309.8
Graph avg: 282.5
Graph median: 285.5171–430
Over the close: 57%4/7

2026 per game

Pass Yds309.8▲+29.8

Att32.0▼-2.9

Cmp%72.9%▲+6.8

Pass TD2.7▲+0.7

INT0.8▼-0.2

Rush Yds15.8▲+11.7

299.5

2025

281

Sep 13
290

Sep 20
290

Oct 18
171

Oct 25
326

Nov 08
250

Nov 29
2026

430

Sep 07
222

Sep 19
?

Oct 24

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 299.5

Home 36% 4/11 · avg 294.5
Away 25% 2/8 · avg 282.5
vs California 0% 0/1 · avg 250.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 279.5 62% 5/8
O 289.5 50% 4/8
O 299.5 Today 25% 2/8
O 309.5 25% 2/8
O 319.5 25% 2/8

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs California

What California allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 183 defenses.

Pass Yds220.8#86
Yds/Att7.1#124
Cmp%60.1%#133
Pass TD1.6#86
Pass Att31.1#57

QBs vs California · 2026

Each main QB who faced California this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.3

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average33% (2/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 17	Giovanni Lopez	267	280.0	-5%
Oct 10	Ethan Grunkemeyer	288	282.7	+2%
Oct 03	Jackson Arnold	177	202.3	-13%
Sep 25	Tait Reynolds	108	167.4	-35%
Sep 12	Steven Angeli	306	212.0	+44%
Sep 05	Nico Iamaleava	184	199.5	-8%

Game log · 8 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 299.5	Close
2026-09-19	3	@ Louisville	222	Under	287.5
2026-09-07	1	@ Florida State	430	Over	270.5
2025-11-29	14	@ California	250	Under	279.5
2025-11-08	11	@ Boston College	326	Over	274.5
2025-10-25	9	@ Wake Forest	171	Under	271.5
2025-10-18	8	@ Clemson	290	Under	257.5
2025-09-20	4	@ TCU	290	Under	259.5
2025-09-13	3	@ Missouri State	281	Under	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 285.5Underdog 285.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 14m ago.