CFB Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bear Bachmeier QB

BYU vs UCF · Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET

223.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 · vs UCF 100%1/1 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 209.5
Graph avg: 289.0
Graph median: 289.0289–289
Over the close: 100%1/1

2026 per game

Pass Yds209.5▼-7.1

Att25.3▼-2.3

Cmp%65.8%▲+0.9

Pass TD1.5▲+0.4

INT0.3▼-0.2

Rush Yds47.3▲+9.7

223.5

2025

289

Nov 29
?

Oct 24

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 223.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 242.5
Away 33% 3/9 · avg 180.3
vs UCF 100% 1/1 · avg 289.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 203.5 100% 1/1
O 213.5 100% 1/1
O 223.5 Today 100% 1/1
O 233.5 100% 1/1
O 243.5 100% 1/1

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs UCF

What UCF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 183 defenses.

Pass Yds239.9#52
Yds/Att7.5#104
Cmp%64.5%#84
Pass TD1.2#147
Pass Att32.1#36

QBs vs UCF · 2026

Each main QB who faced UCF this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.6

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 10	Drew Mestemaker	304	327.2	-7%
Oct 03	Conner Weigman	239	255.2	-6%
Sep 26	Jaden Craig	310	276.8	+12%
Sep 19	Cameran Brown	282	201.8	+40%
Sep 12	Mason Heintschel	212	273.0	-22%

Game log · 1 game

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 223.5	Close
2025-11-29	14	vs UCF	289	Over	180.5

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 223.5Underdog 223.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: CollegeFootballData box scores. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 14m ago.