Matchup X-Ray · Week 7 Watch the 3D replayGame page →
AwayPittsburgh SteelersQB Aaron Rodgers
vs 61% 39% Market-implied win chance · no-vig, 15 books Stade de France · neutral site · Dome
HomeNew Orleans SaintsQB Tyler Shough

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints Matchup X-Ray

Spread
Steelers -3.5
Total
44.5
Steelers ML
-174
Saints ML
+160
Books
15
  • Odds15 sportsbooks · Thu, Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET
  • KarmaEdge AIPublished · Premium
  • Results & closing linesnflverse · through Week 6
  • Line movementDraftKings, open to now
  • Play-by-playnflverse · pass zones, run lanes, drives
  • Injury reportWeek 7 official reports

On the field

Where the ball goes, from every charted 2026 play (nflverse play-by-play): each offense's passes by zone and runs by lane, over what the other defense allows there. Ranks: 1 = the stingiest defense in that zone. Directions are the offense's left and right.

3D replay · last game
—

Every snap is a real play from nflverse play-by-play: the spot, down and distance, pass depth, direction and air yards, run lane, yards gained and result, with nflverse's own play description. The 22 players and their paths are illustrative: public data has no player tracking.

Passing232 charted throws in 6 games
LINE OF SCRIMMAGE DEEP · 20+ AIR YDSSHORT 6% 7.7 Y/A · 27% cmp · 1 TD Saints allow 18.5 · #31 3% 13.4 Y/A · 50% cmp · 1 TD Saints allow 18.1 · #21 9% 5.3 Y/A · 20% cmp · 1 TD Saints allow 10.1 · #13 28% 4.8 Y/A · 65% cmp · 1 TD Saints allow 6.2 · #23 18% 8.1 Y/A · 79% cmp · 4 TD Saints allow 6.2 · #6 35% 6.1 Y/A · 68% cmp · 4 TD Saints allow 6.2 · #25 QB

Steelers throw short right most (35%, 6.1 Y/A). The Saints are soft short right: 6.2 Y/A allowed, #25 of 32.

Running122 charted carries
YARDS PER CARRY → 6.5 17% L End 8.6 #32 1.9 12% L Tackle 3.6 #7 6.9 17% L Guard 5.9 #28 4.6 26% Middle 4.6 #29 3.4 10% R Guard 5.3 #30 4.7 9% R Tackle 6.4 #29 4.8 9% R End 4.6 #14 RB SAINTS ALLOW · RANK

Most carries go middle (26%, 4.6 yards a carry); the Saints allow 4.6 there (#29 of 32).

Passing234 charted throws in 6 games
LINE OF SCRIMMAGE DEEP · 20+ AIR YDSSHORT 8% 6.7 Y/A · 28% cmp Steelers allow 13.3 · #25 3% 15.8 Y/A · 62% cmp · 1 TD Steelers allow 7.0 · #4 6% 14.7 Y/A · 60% cmp · 1 TD Steelers allow 14.1 · #22 36% 5.2 Y/A · 75% cmp · 5 TD Steelers allow 5.3 · #11 8% 6.0 Y/A · 65% cmp · 1 TD Steelers allow 6.8 · #14 38% 4.7 Y/A · 66% cmp · 4 TD Steelers allow 4.1 · #1 QB

Saints throw short right most (38%, 4.7 Y/A).

Running150 charted carries
YARDS PER CARRY → 1.6 6% L End 6.1 #19 3.3 10% L Tackle 4.2 #13 3.7 12% L Guard 5.0 #27 3.7 41% Middle 3.2 #5 4.6 13% R Guard 3.2 #7 2.8 8% R Tackle 2.2 #3 6.9 10% R End 8.1 #31 RB STEELERS ALLOW · RANK

Most carries go middle (41%, 3.7 yards a carry); the Steelers allow 3.2 there (#5 of 32).

Steelers drives, last gamevs TB · Oct 18 · 2 TD, 4 FG, 5 punts, 2 turnovers
10 20 30 40 50 40 30 20 10 Punt · 3 pl Turnover · 1 pl Turnover on downs · 7 pl Punt · 3 pl Missed FG · 6 pl Punt · 3 pl Field goal · 8 pl Punt · 3 pl Punt · 3 pl Touchdown · 8 pl Field goal · 7 pl Field goal · 8 pl Field goal · 3 pl End of half · 1 pl Touchdown · 12 pl
  • Touchdown
  • Field goal
  • Punt / half
  • Turnover
  • Missed FG

Own goal line on the left; each line is a drive from where it started to where the ball ended. Average start: own 37-yard line.

Saints drives, last gamevs NYG · Oct 18 · 4 TD, 2 FG, 7 punts, 1 turnovers
10 20 30 40 50 40 30 20 10 Punt · 5 pl Punt · 3 pl Punt · 3 pl Missed FG · 10 pl Field goal · 6 pl Touchdown · 5 pl Touchdown · 5 pl Touchdown · 9 pl Field goal · 5 pl Punt · 3 pl Touchdown · 2 pl Turnover · 2 pl Punt · 3 pl Punt · 3 pl Punt · 3 pl End of half · 1 pl
  • Touchdown
  • Field goal
  • Punt / half
  • Turnover
  • Missed FG

Own goal line on the left; each line is a drive from where it started to where the ball ended. Average start: own 40-yard line.

Tale of the tape

2026 season through each team's last game. The radar scales each team from the league's worst (centre) to its best (edge); ranks are out of every team that has played.

OffenseDefenseMarginWin %ATS %Last 5
  • Steelers
  • Saints
League rankSteelersSaints
Offense #17#10
Defense #12#31
Margin #13#26
Win % #5#19
ATS % #4#14
Last 5 #9#17
SteelersSaints
4-2 Record 2-4
4-2 Against the spread 3-3
4-2 Over / under 4-2
22.8 Points per game 25.3
21.3 Points allowed 29.7
1.5 Average margin -4.3
3-0 Home record 0-3
1-2 Road record 2-1
3-1 ATS as favorite 1-2
1-1 ATS as underdog 2-1
7 Rest days 7
LWLWWLast 5WLLLW
Mike McCarthyHead coachKellen Moore
KarmaEdge AI
NFL
Pittsburgh SteelersPIT · Away
—
New Orleans SaintsNO · Home
—
Full matchup research

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Unlock full access
NFL
Pittsburgh SteelersPIT · Away
—
New Orleans SaintsNO · Home
—
Full matchup research

Upgrade to view available model projections and explanations for this game.

Unlock full access

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  • RoofDome
  • SurfaceSportTurf
  • Rest edgeEven (7 days)

Price Lab

Every sportsbook's price, the win rate each needs to break even, the book's hold (its built-in margin) and the no-vig split. Lowest hold first. Lines as of Thu, Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET.

Spread ladderSaints line at each book · bigger dot, more books
Total ladderTotal at each book · bigger dot, more books
Best Steelers-3 -118FanDuel
Best Saints+3.5 -114Caesars
Lowest hold4.5%Caesars
Median hold4.6%14 books
BookSteelersSaintsHoldNo-vig split
Caesars Lowest hold -3.5 -105needs 51.2%+3.5 -114needs 53.3% 4.5% 49.0% · 51.0%
Circa -3.5 +100needs 50.0%+3.5 -120needs 54.5% 4.5% 47.8% · 52.2%
ESPN BET -3.5 +100needs 50.0%+3.5 -120needs 54.5% 4.5% 47.8% · 52.2%
Fanatics -3.5 +100needs 50.0%+3.5 -120needs 54.5% 4.5% 47.8% · 52.2%
Hard Rock Bet -3.5 +100needs 50.0%+3.5 -120needs 54.5% 4.5% 47.8% · 52.2%
theScore Bet -3.5 +100needs 50.0%+3.5 -120needs 54.5% 4.5% 47.8% · 52.2%
BetMGM -3.5 -102needs 50.5%+3.5 -118needs 54.1% 4.6% 48.3% · 51.7%
DraftKings -3.5 -102needs 50.5%+3.5 -118needs 54.1% 4.6% 48.3% · 51.7%
PointsBet -3.5 -105needs 51.2%+3.5 -115needs 53.5% 4.7% 48.9% · 51.1%
FanDuel -3 -118needs 54.1%+3 -104needs 51.0% 5.1% 51.5% · 48.5%
Bally Bet -3.5 -105needs 51.2%+3.5 -117needs 53.9% 5.1% 48.7% · 51.3%
BetRivers -3.5 -105needs 51.2%+3.5 -117needs 53.9% 5.1% 48.7% · 51.3%
SugarHouse -3.5 -105needs 51.2%+3.5 -117needs 53.9% 5.1% 48.7% · 51.3%
Tipico -3.5 -111needs 52.6%+3.5 -115needs 53.5% 6.1% 49.6% · 50.4%
Best Over44 -110Circa
Best Under44.5 -108FanDuel
Lowest hold4.3%BetMGM
Median hold4.8%11 books
BookOverUnderHoldNo-vig split
BetMGM Lowest hold 44.5 -108needs 51.9%44.5 -110needs 52.4% 4.3% 49.8% · 50.2%
Caesars 44.5 -107needs 51.7%44.5 -113needs 53.1% 4.7% 49.4% · 50.6%
FanDuel 44.5 -112needs 52.8%44.5 -108needs 51.9% 4.8% 50.4% · 49.6%
Circa 44 -110needs 52.4%44 -110needs 52.4% 4.8% 50.0% · 50.0%
DraftKings 44.5 -110needs 52.4%44.5 -110needs 52.4% 4.8% 50.0% · 50.0%
ESPN BET 44.5 -110needs 52.4%44.5 -110needs 52.4% 4.8% 50.0% · 50.0%
Fanatics 44.5 -110needs 52.4%44.5 -110needs 52.4% 4.8% 50.0% · 50.0%
Hard Rock Bet 44.5 -110needs 52.4%44.5 -110needs 52.4% 4.8% 50.0% · 50.0%
theScore Bet 44.5 -110needs 52.4%44.5 -110needs 52.4% 4.8% 50.0% · 50.0%
Bally Bet 44.5 -103needs 50.7%44.5 -120needs 54.5% 5.3% 48.2% · 51.8%
Tipico 44.5 -115needs 53.5%44.5 -111needs 52.6% 6.1% 50.4% · 49.6%
Best Steelers-174FanDuel
Best Saints+160Circa
Lowest hold3.4%Circa
Median hold4.5%15 books
BookSteelersSaintsHoldNo-vig split
Circa Lowest hold -185needs 64.9%+160needs 38.5% 3.4% 62.8% · 37.2%
Hard Rock Bet -175needs 63.6%+150needs 40.0% 3.6% 61.4% · 38.6%
Caesars -182needs 64.5%+154needs 39.4% 3.9% 62.1% · 37.9%
ESPN BET -185needs 64.9%+155needs 39.2% 4.1% 62.3% · 37.7%
theScore Bet -185needs 64.9%+155needs 39.2% 4.1% 62.3% · 37.7%
Fanatics -180needs 64.3%+150needs 40.0% 4.3% 61.6% · 38.4%
BetMGM -175needs 63.6%+145needs 40.8% 4.5% 60.9% · 39.1%
DraftKings -175needs 63.6%+145needs 40.8% 4.5% 60.9% · 39.1%
PointsBet -175needs 63.6%+145needs 40.8% 4.5% 60.9% · 39.1%
FanDuel -174needs 63.5%+144needs 41.0% 4.5% 60.8% · 39.2%
Bally Bet -177needs 63.9%+145needs 40.8% 4.7% 61.0% · 39.0%
BetRivers -177needs 63.9%+145needs 40.8% 4.7% 61.0% · 39.0%
SugarHouse -177needs 63.9%+145needs 40.8% 4.7% 61.0% · 39.0%
BetR Sportsbook -182needs 64.5%+145needs 40.8% 5.4% 61.3% · 38.7%
Tipico -200needs 66.7%+155needs 39.2% 5.9% 63.0% · 37.0%

Break-even is the win rate a price needs to profit over time. Hold is how much the two sides' break-evens add up to over 100%: the lower, the fairer the book. Best prices are highlighted.

Your Number

Drag to the margin and total you expect. The X-Ray lines your number up against every book and shows where it has the most room. Your number, not a KarmaEdge projection.

3pts

Move the slider.

    44.5pts

    Move the slider.

      Room is how many points your number clears each book's line by. "Needs" is the break-even win rate of that book's price. Research, not advice.

      Form

      Scoring margin game by game; each dot is coloured by whether the team covered nflverse's closing spread. Logs below.

      Steelers4-2 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 4-2
      +17−17 Wk 1 vs ATL: 20-13 · Cover ATL Wk 2 @ NE: 3-20 · Miss NE Wk 3 vs CIN: 30-27 · Cover CIN Wk 4 @ CLE: 24-27 · Miss CLE Wk 5 vs IND: 34-22 · Cover IND Wk 6 @ TB: 26-19 · Cover TB
      • Cover
      • Miss
      • Push
      WkOppScoreLineATSTotal
      6 @ TB W 26-19 -2.5 Cover O 38.5
      5 vs IND W 34-22 -3 Cover O 41.5
      4 @ CLE L 24-27 -2.5 Miss O 38.5
      3 vs CIN W 30-27 +3.5 Cover O 42.5
      2 @ NE L 3-20 +4.5 Miss U 41.5
      1 vs ATL W 20-13 -6.5 Cover U 40.5
      Saints2-4 · ATS 3-3 · O/U 4-2
      +21−21 Wk 1 @ DET: 30-31 · Cover DET Wk 2 @ BAL: 24-17 · Cover BAL Wk 3 vs LV: 27-35 · Miss LV Wk 4 vs ATL: 24-45 · Miss ATL Wk 5 vs MIN: 13-23 · Miss MIN Wk 6 @ NYG: 34-27 · Cover NYG
      • Cover
      • Miss
      • Push
      WkOppScoreLineATSTotal
      6 @ NYG W 34-27 -1.5 Cover O 46.5
      5 vs MIN L 13-23 +2.5 Miss U 41.5
      4 vs ATL L 24-45 -1.5 Miss O 47.5
      3 vs LV L 27-35 -3.5 Miss O 43.5
      2 @ BAL W 24-17 +8.5 Cover U 45.5
      1 @ DET L 30-31 +7 Cover O 49.5

      Head to head

      The last 6 meetings in the nflverse schedule (since 1999), newest first. Bars show the winning margin toward the winner's side.

      2Steelers wins
      4Saints wins
      Steelers ATS3-2-1
      Over / under4-2
      Since20026 meetings
      1. 2022Week 10 Steelers 20vsSaints 10 Steelers -1CoverTotal 39.5Under
      2. 2018Week 16 Steelers 28@Saints 31 Steelers +6.5CoverTotal 53Over
      3. 2014Week 13 Steelers 32vsSaints 35 Steelers -3.5MissTotal 54.5Over
      4. 2010Week 8 Steelers 10@Saints 20 Steelers +1MissTotal 45Under
      5. 2006Week 10 Steelers 38vsSaints 31 Steelers -6.5CoverTotal 45.5Over
      6. 2002Week 5 Steelers 29@Saints 32 Steelers +3PushTotal 43.5Over

      Lineups

      Each offense against the other defense from the depth charts, and the official injury reports when they are out for this week.

      Saints defense · Base 3-4

      Steelers offense · 11 personnel

      Steelers defense · Base 3-4

      Saints offense · 11 personnel

      Depth charts as of Oct 22, 2026.

      Pittsburgh Steelers

      No player with a game status.

      New Orleans Saints

      No player with a game status.

      Moves & props

      DraftKings lines from the open (or the first line KarmaEdge tracked) to now, and this game's player prop lines.

      Moneyline · Steelers -135.0-175.0 -40
      Moneyline · Saints 114.0145.0 +31
      Spread · Steelers -2.5-3.5 -1
      Spread · Saints 2.53.5 +1
      Total · Over 42.544.5 +2
      Total · Under 42.544.5 +2
      • Aaron RodgersQB · PIT · Passing Yards 230.5 O -110 Fanatics
        U -111 DraftKings
      • Tyler ShoughQB · NO · Passing Yards 225.5 O -110 Fanatics
        U -120 Fanatics
      • Alvin KamaraRB · NO · Rushing Yards 16.5 O -108 DraftKings
        U -111 BetMGM
      • Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT · Rushing Yards 63.5 O -110 DraftKings
        U -114 FanDuel
      • Rico DowdleRB · PIT · Rushing Yards 29.5 O -105 ESPN BET
        U -114 FanDuel
      • Tyler ShoughQB · NO · Rushing Yards 15.5 O +100 Fanatics
        U -106 DraftKings
      • Aaron RodgersQB · PIT · Rushing Yards 1.5 O -114 DraftKings
        U -110 DraftKings
      • Kendre MillerRB · NO · Rushing Yards 39.5 O +105 ESPN BET
        U -135 ESPN BET

      All 39 prop lines for this game →

      KarmaEdge.AI is not a sportsbook and never accepts wagers. Lines move; each shows when it was read. Market-implied chances are the sportsbooks' no-vig prices, not a KarmaEdge projection. Results and closing lines are from the nflverse schedule. Research, not guarantees. 18+ and of legal age where you are. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.