Matchup X-Ray · Week 7
▶ Watch the 3D replayGame page →
AwayNew England PatriotsQB Drake Maye
Market-implied win chance · no-vig, 15 books
Soldier Field · Outdoors
HomeChicago BearsQB Caleb Williams
New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Matchup X-Ray
- Spread
- Bears -3
- Total
- 50.5
- Patriots ML
- +136
- Bears ML
- -149
- Books
- 15
- Odds15 sportsbooks · Thu, Oct 22 · 6:14 PM ET
- KarmaEdge AIProjection published
- Results & closing linesnflverse · through Week 6
- Line movementDraftKings, open to now
- Play-by-playnflverse · pass zones, run lanes, drives
- Injury reportWeek 7 official reports
On the field
Where the ball goes, from every charted 2026 play (nflverse play-by-play): each offense's passes by zone and runs by lane, over what the other defense allows there. Ranks: 1 = the stingiest defense in that zone. Directions are the offense's left and right.
—
Every snap is a real play from nflverse play-by-play: the spot, down and distance, pass depth, direction and air yards, run lane, yards gained and result, with nflverse's own play description. The 22 players and their paths are illustrative: public data has no player tracking.
Patriots throw short left most (34%, 5.7 Y/A). The Bears are soft short right: 6.0 Y/A allowed, #24 of 32.
Most carries go middle (38%, 3.7 yards a carry); the Bears allow 2.9 there (#3 of 32).
Bears throw short right most (35%, 5.4 Y/A). The Patriots are soft short middle: 10.2 Y/A allowed, #32 of 32.
Most carries go right guard (23%, 4.1 yards a carry); the Patriots allow 3.2 there (#9 of 32).
- Touchdown
- Field goal
- Punt / half
- Turnover
- Missed FG
Own goal line on the left; each line is a drive from where it started to where the ball ended. Average start: own 35-yard line.
- Touchdown
- Field goal
- Punt / half
- Turnover
- Missed FG
Own goal line on the left; each line is a drive from where it started to where the ball ended. Average start: own 43-yard line.
Tale of the tape
2026 season through each team's last game. The radar scales each team from the league's worst (centre) to its best (edge); ranks are out of every team that has played.
- Patriots
- Bears
| League rank | Patriots | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | #18 | #12 |
| Defense | #5 | #6 |
| Margin | #10 | #5 |
| Win % | #5 | #5 |
| ATS % | #13 | #4 |
| Last 5 | #4 | #9 |
PatriotsBears
4-2
Record
4-2
3-2-1
Against the spread
4-2
3-3
Over / under
2-4
3-0
Home record
2-1
1-2
Road record
2-1
2-1
ATS as favorite
3-2
1-1-1
ATS as underdog
1-0
WLWWWLast 5LWWLW
Mike VrabelHead coachBen Johnson
KarmaEdge AI
DraftKingsAway +3.0 -115Home -3.0 -105
Bally BetAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110
BetMGMAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 +100
BetRiversAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110
CaesarsAway +3.0 -113Home -3.0 -107
CircaAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110
ESPN BETAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110
FanaticsAway +3.0 -115Home -3.0 -105
FanDuelAway +3.0 -112Home -3.0 -108
Hard Rock BetAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110
PointsBetAway +2.5 +100Home -2.5 -120
theScore BetAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110
How this score works
DraftKingsTotal 50.5Over -118 · Under -102Bally BetTotal 50.5Over -113 · Under -108BetMGMTotal 50.5Over -115 · Under -105BetRiversTotal 50.5Over -113 · Under -108ESPN BETTotal 51.5Over +100 · Under -120FanaticsTotal 50.5Over -115 · Under -105FanDuelTotal 50.5Over -120 · Under -102Hard Rock BetTotal 50.5Over -120 · Under +100
How this score works
New England PatriotsNE · Away
—
Chicago BearsCHI · Home
—
KarmaEdge AI Score
82
★★★★
Posted line+3.0
KarmaEdge AI projectionNew England Patriots -2.0
Projection versus posted line+5.0 points
Compare eligible sportsbooks 13
DraftKingsAway +3.0 -115Home -3.0 -105Bally BetAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110BetMGMAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 +100BetRiversAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110CaesarsAway +3.0 -113Home -3.0 -107CircaAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110ESPN BETAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110FanaticsAway +3.0 -115Home -3.0 -105FanDuelAway +3.0 -112Home -3.0 -108Hard Rock BetAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110PointsBetAway +2.5 +100Home -2.5 -120SugarHouseAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110
theScore BetAway +3.0 -110Home -3.0 -110Why the projection differs
Independent game-model projection compared with a current sportsbook line.
New England PatriotsNE · Away
—
Chicago BearsCHI · Home
—
KarmaEdge AI Score
75
★★★★
Posted line+50.5
KarmaEdge AI projection51.8
Projection versus posted line+1.3 points
Compare eligible sportsbooks 10
DraftKingsTotal 50.5Over -118 · Under -102Bally BetTotal 50.5Over -113 · Under -108BetMGMTotal 50.5Over -115 · Under -105BetRiversTotal 50.5Over -113 · Under -108ESPN BETTotal 51.5Over +100 · Under -120FanaticsTotal 50.5Over -115 · Under -105FanDuelTotal 50.5Over -120 · Under -102Hard Rock BetTotal 50.5Over -120 · Under +100SugarHouseTotal 50.5Over -113 · Under -108
TipicoTotal 50.5Over -115 · Under -111
Why the projection differs
Independent game-model projection compared with a current sportsbook line.
- RoofOutdoors
- SurfaceGrass
- Rest edgeEven (4 days)
Price Lab
Every sportsbook's price, the win rate each needs to break even, the book's hold (its built-in margin) and the no-vig split. Lowest hold first. Lines as of Thu, Oct 22 · 6:14 PM ET.
Spread ladderBears line at each book · bigger dot, more books
-312-2.51
Total ladderTotal at each book · bigger dot, more books
50.5951.51
Best Patriots+3 -110Bally Bet
Best Bears-2.5 -120PointsBet
Lowest hold2.4%BetMGM
Median hold4.8%13 books
| Book | Patriots | Bears | Hold | No-vig split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM Lowest hold | +3 -110needs 52.4% | -3 +100needs 50.0% | 2.4% | 51.2% · 48.8% |
| PointsBet | +2.5 +100needs 50.0% | -2.5 -120needs 54.5% | 4.5% | 47.8% · 52.2% |
| DraftKings | +3 -115needs 53.5% | -3 -105needs 51.2% | 4.7% | 51.1% · 48.9% |
| Fanatics | +3 -115needs 53.5% | -3 -105needs 51.2% | 4.7% | 51.1% · 48.9% |
| Caesars | +3 -113needs 53.1% | -3 -107needs 51.7% | 4.7% | 50.6% · 49.4% |
| FanDuel | +3 -112needs 52.8% | -3 -108needs 51.9% | 4.8% | 50.4% · 49.6% |
| Bally Bet | +3 -110needs 52.4% | -3 -110needs 52.4% | 4.8% | 50.0% · 50.0% |
| BetRivers | +3 -110needs 52.4% | -3 -110needs 52.4% | 4.8% | 50.0% · 50.0% |
| Circa | +3 -110needs 52.4% | -3 -110needs 52.4% | 4.8% | 50.0% · 50.0% |
| ESPN BET | +3 -110needs 52.4% | -3 -110needs 52.4% | 4.8% | 50.0% · 50.0% |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -110needs 52.4% | -3 -110needs 52.4% | 4.8% | 50.0% · 50.0% |
| SugarHouse | +3 -110needs 52.4% | -3 -110needs 52.4% | 4.8% | 50.0% · 50.0% |
| theScore Bet | +3 -110needs 52.4% | -3 -110needs 52.4% | 4.8% | 50.0% · 50.0% |
Best Over50.5 -113Bally Bet
Best Under51.5 -120ESPN BET
Lowest hold4.5%ESPN BET
Median hold4.8%10 books
| Book | Over | Under | Hold | No-vig split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET Lowest hold | 51.5 +100needs 50.0% | 51.5 -120needs 54.5% | 4.5% | 47.8% · 52.2% |
| Hard Rock Bet | 50.5 -120needs 54.5% | 50.5 +100needs 50.0% | 4.5% | 52.2% · 47.8% |
| DraftKings | 50.5 -118needs 54.1% | 50.5 -102needs 50.5% | 4.6% | 51.7% · 48.3% |
| BetMGM | 50.5 -115needs 53.5% | 50.5 -105needs 51.2% | 4.7% | 51.1% · 48.9% |
| Fanatics | 50.5 -115needs 53.5% | 50.5 -105needs 51.2% | 4.7% | 51.1% · 48.9% |
| Bally Bet | 50.5 -113needs 53.1% | 50.5 -108needs 51.9% | 5.0% | 50.5% · 49.5% |
| BetRivers | 50.5 -113needs 53.1% | 50.5 -108needs 51.9% | 5.0% | 50.5% · 49.5% |
| SugarHouse | 50.5 -113needs 53.1% | 50.5 -108needs 51.9% | 5.0% | 50.5% · 49.5% |
| FanDuel | 50.5 -120needs 54.5% | 50.5 -102needs 50.5% | 5.0% | 51.9% · 48.1% |
| Tipico | 50.5 -115needs 53.5% | 50.5 -111needs 52.6% | 6.1% | 50.4% · 49.6% |
Best Patriots+136Caesars
Best Bears-149PointsBet
Lowest hold3.3%PointsBet
Median hold4.3%15 books
| Book | Patriots | Bears | Hold | No-vig split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet Lowest hold | +130needs 43.5% | -149needs 59.8% | 3.3% | 42.1% · 57.9% |
| Circa | +135needs 42.6% | -155needs 60.8% | 3.3% | 41.2% · 58.8% |
| ESPN BET | +130needs 43.5% | -150needs 60.0% | 3.5% | 42.0% · 58.0% |
| theScore Bet | +130needs 43.5% | -150needs 60.0% | 3.5% | 42.0% · 58.0% |
| FanDuel | +134needs 42.7% | -158needs 61.2% | 4.0% | 41.1% · 58.9% |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135needs 42.6% | -160needs 61.5% | 4.1% | 40.9% · 59.1% |
| Caesars | +136needs 42.4% | -162needs 61.8% | 4.2% | 40.7% · 59.3% |
| BetMGM | +130needs 43.5% | -155needs 60.8% | 4.3% | 41.7% · 58.3% |
| DraftKings | +130needs 43.5% | -155needs 60.8% | 4.3% | 41.7% · 58.3% |
| Fanatics | +130needs 43.5% | -155needs 60.8% | 4.3% | 41.7% · 58.3% |
| BetR Sportsbook | +130needs 43.5% | -161needs 61.7% | 5.2% | 41.3% · 58.7% |
| Bally Bet | +128needs 43.9% | -159needs 61.4% | 5.2% | 41.7% · 58.3% |
| BetRivers | +128needs 43.9% | -159needs 61.4% | 5.2% | 41.7% · 58.3% |
| SugarHouse | +128needs 43.9% | -159needs 61.4% | 5.2% | 41.7% · 58.3% |
| Tipico | +125needs 44.4% | -161needs 61.7% | 6.1% | 41.9% · 58.1% |
Break-even is the win rate a price needs to profit over time. Hold is how much the two sides' break-evens add up to over 100%: the lower, the fairer the book. Best prices are highlighted.
Your Number
Drag to the margin and total you expect. The X-Ray lines your number up against every book and shows where it has the most room. Your number, not a KarmaEdge projection.
pts
Move the slider.
pts
Move the slider.
Room is how many points your number clears each book's line by. "Needs" is the break-even win rate of that book's price. Research, not advice.
Form
Scoring margin game by game; each dot is coloured by whether the team covered nflverse's closing spread. Logs below.
Patriots4-2 · ATS 3-2-1 · O/U 3-3- Cover
- Miss
- Push
| Wk | Opp | Score | Line | ATS | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | vs NYJ | W 26-19 | -7.5 | Miss | O 43.5 |
| 5 | vs LV | W 45-17 | -3.5 | Cover | O 45.5 |
| 4 | @ BUF | W 29-26 | +7 | Cover | O 49.5 |
| 3 | @ JAX | L 6-35 | +3 | Miss | U 46.5 |
| 2 | vs PIT | W 20-3 | -4.5 | Cover | U 41.5 |
| 1 | @ SEA | L 10-13 | +3 | Push | U 44.5 |
Bears4-2 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4- Cover
- Miss
- Push
| Wk | Opp | Score | Line | ATS | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | @ ATL | W 31-23 | -1.5 | Cover | O 51.5 |
| 5 | @ GB | L 7-31 | -1.5 | Miss | U 46.5 |
| 4 | vs NYJ | W 23-12 | -3.5 | Cover | U 43.5 |
| 3 | vs PHI | W 27-7 | +3.5 | Cover | U 42.5 |
| 2 | vs MIN | L 3-9 | -4.5 | Miss | U 46.5 |
| 1 | @ CAR | W 59-37 | -3 | Cover | O 47.5 |
Head to head
The last 8 meetings in the nflverse schedule (since 1999), newest first. Bars show the winning margin toward the winner's side.
6Patriots wins
2Bears wins
Patriots ATS4-4
Over / under6-2
Since20008 meetings
- 2024Week 10 Patriots 19@Bears 3 Patriots +6.5CoverTotal 37.5Under
- 2022Week 7 Patriots 14vsBears 33 Patriots -9.5MissTotal 40Over
- 2018Week 7 Patriots 38@Bears 31 Patriots -1CoverTotal 49Over
- 2014Week 8 Patriots 51vsBears 23 Patriots -5.5CoverTotal 51Over
- 2010Week 14 Patriots 36@Bears 7 Patriots -3CoverTotal 37.5Over
- 2006Week 12 Patriots 17vsBears 13 Patriots -4.5MissTotal 38Under
- 2002Week 10 Patriots 33@Bears 30 Patriots -5MissTotal 39Over
- 2000Week 15 Patriots 17@Bears 24 Patriots +2MissTotal 36.5Over
Lineups
Each offense against the other defense from the depth charts, and the official injury reports when they are out for this week.
Bears defense · Base 4-3
Austin Booker
Left Defensive End · #94 · 75% of snaps in Week 6
- #92 Daniel Hardy
- #98 Montez Sweat
Grady Jarrett
Left Defensive Tackle · #50 · 71% of snaps in Week 6
- #90 Neville Gallimore
- #91 Jayden Loving
Kentavius Street
Right Defensive Tackle · #93 · 31% of snaps in Week 6
- #95 Shemar Turner
- #96 Jordan van den Berg
James Lynch
Right Defensive End · #97 · 67% of snaps in Week 6
- #59 Jamree Kromah
- #55 Dayo Odeyingbo
Devin Bush
Weakside Linebacker · #12 · 80% of snaps in Week 6
- #43 Tony Fields II
- #46 Nephi Sewell
T.J. Edwards
Middle Linebacker · #53
Doubtful Hamstring · Week 7 report
- #44 Noah Sewell
- #49 Keyshaun Elliott
D'Marco Jackson
Strongside Linebacker · #48 · 84% of snaps in Week 6
- #57 Jack Sanborn O
- #47 Ruben Hyppolite II
Jaylon Johnson
Left Cornerback · #1 · 84% of snaps in Week 6
- #39 Josh Blackwell
Dillon Thieneman
Strong Safety · #31 · 84% of snaps in Week 6
- #22 Elijah Hicks
Cam Lewis
Free Safety · #21
- #38 Skyler Thomas
- #2 Coby Bryant
Tyrique Stevenson
Right Cornerback · #29
Questionable Hip · Week 7 report
- #24 Malik Muhammad
- #20 Clark Phillips III
- #37 Dallis Flowers
Drake Maye
Quarterback · #10 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #16 Tommy DeVito
- #15 Behren Morton
Rhamondre Stevenson
Running Back · #38 · 60% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #32 TreVeyon Henderson
- #9 Corey Kiner
- #39 Myles Montgomery
A.J. Brown
Wide Receiver · #1 · 76% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #18 Kyle Williams
DeMario Douglas
Wide Receiver · #3 · 59% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #13 Mack Hollins
Efton Chism III
Wide Receiver · #86 · 62% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #87 Romeo Doubs
Hunter Henry
Tight End · #85 · 76% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #82 Eli Raridon
- #36 Cameron Latu
- #84 Tanner Arkin
Will Campbell
Left Tackle · #66 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
- #74 Caleb Lomu
- #68 Dametrious Crownover
Alijah Vera-Tucker
Left Guard · #75 · 32% of snaps in Week 6
Out Hamstring · Week 7 report
- #72 Walter Rouse
- #65 Matt Pryor
- #70 Greg Van Roten
Jared Wilson
Center · #55 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
No backup listed.
Ben Brown
Right Guard · #77 · 79% of snaps in Week 6
Out Knee · Week 7 report
- #65 Matt Pryor
- #72 Walter Rouse
- #71 Mike Onwenu
Morgan Moses
Right Tackle · #76 · 13% of snaps in Week 6
Questionable Foot · Week 7 report
- #74 Caleb Lomu
- #52 Marcus Bryant
Patriots offense · 11 personnel
Patriots defense · Base 3-4
Christian Barmore
Left Defensive End · #90 · 40% of snaps in Week 6
- #92 Joshua Farmer
- #93 Leonard Taylor III
Cory Durden
Nose Tackle · #94 · 47% of snaps in Week 6
No backup listed.
Milton Williams
Right Defensive End · #97 · 74% of snaps in Week 6
- #99 DaQuan Jones
Elijah Ponder
Weakside Linebacker · #91 · 77% of snaps in Week 6
- #2 Harold Landry III
Christian Elliss
Left Inside Linebacker · #53 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
Questionable Chest · Week 7 report
- #54 Darius Muasau
- #48 Namdi Obiazor
Robert Spillane
Right Inside Linebacker · #14 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
- #49 Erick Hunter
- #59 Khalil Jacobs
Dre'Mont Jones
Strongside Linebacker · #5 · 73% of snaps in Week 6
- #50 Gabe Jacas
- #45 Quintayvious Hutchins
Carlton Davis III
Left Cornerback · #7
Out Neck · Week 7 report
- #22 Charles Woods
- #27 Elliott Davison
Craig Woodson
Strong Safety · #4 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
Questionable Shoulder · Week 7 report
- #23 Jaylen Reed
- #24 Dell Pettus
Kevin Byard
Free Safety · #31 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
Questionable Chest · Week 7 report
- #33 Mike Brown
- #41 Brenden Schooler
Christian Gonzalez
Right Cornerback · #0 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
- #29 Channing Canada O
- #21 Karon Prunty O
Caleb Williams
Quarterback · #18 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #17 Tyson Bagent
- #11 Case Keenum
D'Andre Swift
Running Back · #4 · 58% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #25 Kyle Monangai O
- #23 Roschon Johnson
- #38 Brittain Brown
Rome Odunze
Wide Receiver · #15 · 96% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #13 Zavion Thomas
Luther Burden III
Wide Receiver · #10 · 39% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #9 Jahdae Walker
Kalif Raymond
Wide Receiver · #14 · 47% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
No backup listed.
Colston Loveland
Tight End · #84 · 88% of snaps in Week 6
Stats & game log
- #85 Cole Kmet
- #87 Sam Roush
- #86 Nikola Kalinic
Theo Benedet
Left Tackle · #79 · 78% of snaps in Week 6
- #75 Ozzy Trapilo
- #70 Braxton Jones
Joe Thuney
Left Guard · #62 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
- #74 Jordan McFadden
Garrett Bradbury
Center · #67 · 91% of snaps in Week 6
- #54 Logan Jones
Jonah Jackson
Right Guard · #73 · 65% of snaps in Week 6
- #65 Luke Newman
Darnell Wright
Right Tackle · #58 · 100% of snaps in Week 6
- #79 Theo Benedet
Bears offense · 11 personnel
Depth charts as of Oct 22, 2026.
New England Patriots
- OutAlijah Vera-TuckerG · Hamstring · Did not practice
- OutBen BrownC · Knee · Did not practice
- OutCarlton Davis IIICB · Neck · Limited
- OutChanning CanadaCB · Hamstring · Limited
- OutKaron PruntyCB · Hamstring · Limited
- QuestionableChristian EllissLB · Chest · Full
- QuestionableCraig WoodsonS · Shoulder · Full
- QuestionableKevin ByardS · Chest · Full
- QuestionableMorgan MosesT · Foot · Limited
Chicago Bears
- OutJack SanbornLB · Concussion · Did not practice
- OutKyle MonangaiRB · Thumb · Did not practice
- DoubtfulT.J. EdwardsLB · Hamstring · Limited
- QuestionableTyrique StevensonCB · Hip · Full
Moves & props
DraftKings lines from the open (or the first line KarmaEdge tracked) to now, and this game's player prop lines.
Moneyline · Patriots
100.0130.0
+30
Moneyline · Bears
-120.0-155.0
-35
Spread · Patriots
1.53.0
+1.5
Spread · Bears
-1.5-3.0
-1.5
Total · Over
47.550.5
+3
Total · Under
47.550.5
+3
-
Drake MayeQB · NE · Passing Yards
248.5
O -110 Circa
U -110 Circa -
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI · Passing Yards
240.5
O -120 Fanatics
U -110 Fanatics -
Drake MayeQB · NE · Rushing Yards
27.5
O -113 FanDuel
U -110 Caesars -
Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE · Rushing Yards
43.5
O -112 Caesars
U -113 FanDuel -
TreVeyon HendersonRB · NE · Rushing Yards
24.5
O +100 ESPN BET
U -110 Circa -
Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI · Rushing Yards
19.5
O +100 ESPN BET
U -110 Circa -
Corey KinerRB · NE · Rushing Yards
14.5
O -107 DraftKings
U -113 FanDuel -
D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI · Rushing Yards
60.5
O -113 FanDuel
U -112 Caesars
KarmaEdge.AI is not a sportsbook and never accepts wagers. Lines move; each shows when it was read. Market-implied chances are the sportsbooks' no-vig prices, not a KarmaEdge projection. Results and closing lines are from the nflverse schedule. Research, not guarantees. 18+ and of legal age where you are. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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