What the score measures
Every AI Score starts with two numbers: the KarmaEdge AI projection and the posted line. The difference between them is the gap. The score ranks that gap by size against every comparable play on the board at the same time.
- A bigger gap than most comparable plays means a higher score.
- When the projection equals the line, there is no gap: the score is 0 and the card shows "No lean".
- Direction does not matter. A gap toward the over and a gap of the same size toward the under rank the same.
So a score answers one question only: how far does the model disagree with the market here, relative to everywhere else it disagrees today?
What counts as comparable
A score only compares like with like.
Game cards (NFL and college football spreads and totals). Each game is ranked against the other games in the same sport and market for the same football week, Tuesday through Monday, Eastern time. The gap is measured against the average main line across every eligible sportsbook, so one book's number doesn't decide the score. When two games have the same gap, the one with the better available price on the model's side ranks higher. This is AI Score version 1.1, used for game cards since October 9, 2026.
Player props (KarmaCards). Each prop is ranked against props in the same sport and market (for example, receiving yards) on the same sportsbook or platform for the same day. This is AI Score version 1.
Two edge cases:
- Only one comparable play. There is nothing to rank it against, so the card shows its projection and line with no score.
- Every play has the same gap. There is no separation to rank, so every play scores 50.
How the stars work
Stars are a display of the same rank, nothing more:
- 5 stars: AI Score 90 or higher.
- 4 stars: 75 to 89.
- 3 stars: 50 to 74.
- Below 50: game cards show two stars, so a game with a real but smaller gap is not left blank. Player props below 50 show no stars.
- A score of 0 (no model lean) shows no stars anywhere.
Because stars come from the rank, they mean the same thing the score does: the size of the model's disagreement with the line, compared with other plays.
What the AI Score is not
The score ranks gaps. It is not:
- a win probability or a confidence level;
- expected value or expected profit;
- a prediction that higher-scored plays win more often than lower-scored ones;
- a suggestion of how much to risk;
- proof that the market is wrong.
A large gap can come from information the market doesn't have yet, or from model error. The score cannot tell those apart. That is why every scored card also shows the projection, the line and the gap: the score is a way to sort the board, not a verdict.
Why a score can change or disappear
The score is recalculated whenever the board updates. A new model run, a moved line, or games added to or dropped from the week all change the comparison, so a game's score can move even when its own numbers don't.
A card withholds its score and stars when the data behind it is missing or stale, when the line has moved since the model ran (the card says "Line moved"), or when the game has started. Nothing is filled in to keep a card looking complete.
How KarmaEdge checks it
KarmaEdge records every game card before kickoff and grades it after the game, by stars and by gap size. That grading is research for improving the models and the score. It is not a claim that higher scores have won, or will win, more often.