NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

236.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 249.8
Graph avg: 239.0
Graph median: 250.5130–334
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+15.1

Att27.6▼-2.1

Cmp%65.9%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.4▼-0.2

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds47.8▲+10.1

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

236.5

2025

193

Dec 14
130

Dec 21
262

Dec 28
273

Jan 11
283

Jan 17
2026

334

Sep 13
248

Sep 17
204

Sep 27
253

Oct 04
210

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 236.5

Home 57% 12/21 · avg 241.7
Away 48% 10/21 · avg 226.9
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 216.5 60% 6/10
O 226.5 60% 6/10
O 236.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 246.5 60% 6/10
O 256.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds222.6#19
Yds/Att7.1#14
Cmp%67.0%#4
Pass TD1.5#17
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+35.5

Avg diff %+20%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake Maye	374	213.5	+75%
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	225	270.7	-17%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	255	261.0	-2%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	192	186.2	+3%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	220	157.2	+40%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.5 yds	8%17.8 yds	7%14.8 yds
Short	28%7.7 yds	13%8.9 yds	38%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 236.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	210	Under	249.5	64 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	253	Over	242.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	204	Under	239.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	248	Over	253.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	334	Over	220.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	283	Over	211.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	273	Over	274.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	262	Over	198.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	130	Under	122.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	193	Under	225.5	70 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 224.5PrizePicks 236.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.