NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cade Otton TE

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

29.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 36.4
Graph avg: 35.2
Graph median: 29.59–94
Over the close: 70%7/10

2026 per game

Targets5.4+0.0

Rec3.6▼-0.3

Rec Yds36.4▼-1.7

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps61.0▼-0.8

Snap %93.6%+0.0

29.5

2025

9

Nov 30
19

Dec 07
15

Dec 21
33

Dec 28
94

Jan 03
2026

26

Sep 13
38

Sep 20
56

Sep 27
37

Oct 04
25

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 76% 13/17 · avg 48.1
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 31.6
vs PIT No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 70% 7/10
O 24.5 70% 7/10
O 29.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 34.5 40% 4/10
O 39.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds57.6#11
Receptions5.5#14
Targets7.1#21
Yds/Target8.1#6
Rec TD0.5#9

TEs vs PIT · 2026

Each main TE who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.0

Avg diff %+9%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Tyler Warren	83	32.5	+155%
Oct 01	Harold Fannin Jr.	27	32.5	-17%
Sep 27	Mike Gesicki	37	40.7	-9%
Sep 20	Hunter Henry	40	34.2	+17%
Sep 13	Kyle Pitts	0	27.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	4%9.0 yds	4%0.0 yds
Short	17%8.6 yds	29%5.1 yds	42%9.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	25	Under	30.5	66 (92%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	37	Over	24.5	60 (95%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	56	Over	27.5	65 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	38	Over	27.5	58 (89%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	26	Under	31.5	56 (98%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	94	Over	44.5	64 (96%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	33	Over	23.5	65 (97%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	15	Under	6.5	60 (94%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	19	Under	16.5	60 (81%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	9	Under	9.5	59 (97%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.