NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Xavier Worthy WR

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

48.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 33.2
Graph avg: 38.4
Graph median: 38.00–70
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Targets5.5▲+0.3

Rec3.5▲+0.5

Rec Yds33.2▼-4.8

Rec TD0.2▲+0.2

Snaps52.5▲+6.4

Snap %80.2%▲+9.7

48.5

2025

59

Nov 23
61

Nov 27
55

Dec 07
35

Dec 14
41

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
2026

18

Sep 14
25

Sep 20
20

Sep 27
70

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 48.5

Home 35% 7/20 · avg 38.6
Away 35% 6/17 · avg 48.1
vs LAC 25% 1/4 · avg 37.2

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 38.5 50% 5/10
O 43.5 40% 4/10
O 48.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 53.5 40% 4/10
O 58.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds138.5#18
Receptions10.6#16
Targets16.1#27
Yds/Target8.6#12
Rec TD0.9#14

WRs vs LAC · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.8

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jaylen Waddle	19	41.8	-55%
Oct 11	Courtland Sutton	18	21.0	-14%
Oct 04	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	76	128.2	-41%
Oct 04	Cooper Kupp	13	33.2	-61%
Sep 27	Khalil Shakir	6	62.5	-90%
Sep 27	Keon Coleman	37	46.8	-21%
Sep 20	Tre Tucker	119	38.8	+207%
Sep 20	Jalen Nailor	9	21.5	-58%
Sep 13	Michael Wilson	56	58.0	-3%
Sep 13	Kendrick Bourne	75	34.3	+118%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%10.8 yds	6%27.7 yds	16%4.9 yds
Short	20%6.1 yds	6%8.3 yds	42%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 48.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	70	Over	33.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	20	Under	38.5	43 (83%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	25	Under	39.5	69 (86%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	18	Under	36.5	53 (77%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	0	Under	0.5	34 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	41	Under	40.5	38 (84%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	35	Under	36.5	41 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	55	Over	55.5	49 (77%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	61	Over	20.5	58 (88%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	59	Over	30.5	74 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 48.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.