NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Garrett Wilson WR

NYJ vs NE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

72.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 74.8
Graph avg: 62.4
Graph median: 75.00–107
Over the close: 70%7/10

2026 per game

Targets8.4-0.0

Rec6.2▲+1.1

Rec Yds74.8▲+18.4

Rec TD0.6+0.0

Snaps54.8▲+0.1

Snap %90.0%▲+3.0

72.5

2025

84

Sep 21
82

Sep 29
71

Oct 05
13

Oct 12
0

Nov 09
2026

79

Sep 13
57

Sep 20
107

Sep 27
27

Oct 04
104

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 72.5

Home 27% 4/15 · avg 55.0
Away 50% 7/14 · avg 74.9
vs NE 50% 1/2 · avg 73.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 52.5 70% 7/10
O 62.5 60% 6/10
O 72.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 82.5 30% 3/10
O 92.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs NE

What NE allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds118.9#28
Receptions11.3#14
Targets20.0#6
Yds/Target5.9#32
Rec TD0.8#19

WRs vs NE · 2026

Each main WR who faced NE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.3

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Tre Tucker	41	58.2	-30%
Oct 11	Cody White	44	16.0	+175%
Oct 04	DJ Moore	11	55.7	-80%
Oct 04	Khalil Shakir	82	43.5	+89%
Sep 27	Parker Washington	40	78.0	-49%
Sep 27	Jakobi Meyers	64	34.5	+86%
Sep 20	DK Metcalf	27	49.5	-45%
Sep 20	Roman Wilson	28	40.0	-30%
Sep 09	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	122	119.0	+3%
Sep 09	Rashid Shaheed	4	31.6	-87%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.0 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%12.7 yds
Short	37%5.3 yds	10%4.5 yds	40%5.0 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds#29	4%10.5 yds#31	4%10.0 yds#22
Short	32%5.2 yds#27	17%7.7 yds#12	36%4.4 yds#31

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.2 yds	7%8.0 yds	11%15.1 yds
Short	30%3.4 yds	16%6.2 yds	30%8.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	5	8.4	42	30.1%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	5	4.2	21	16.1%
4	Mason Taylor TE	2	3.0	6	11.7%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	5	2.8	14	10.7%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Tim Patrick WR	1	3.0	3	10.3%
8	Braelon Allen RB	5	2.2	11	8.5%
9	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 72.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CLE	104	Over	69.5	65 (93%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CHI	27	Under	75.5	32 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DET	107	Over	77.5	62 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	57	Under	68.5	65 (88%)
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	79	Over	60.5	50 (75%)
2025-11-09	10	vs CLE	0	Under	20.5	19 (39%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DEN	13	Under	10.5	48 (84%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DAL	71	Under	62.5	77 (94%)
2025-09-29	4	@ MIA	82	Over	50.5	62 (98%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TB	84	Over	65.5	69 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 72.5Underdog 79.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.