NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DK Metcalf WR

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

50.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 45.0
Graph avg: 54.4
Graph median: 41.012–148
Over the close: 10%1/10

2026 per game

Targets7.4▲+0.9

Rec3.8-0.0

Rec Yds45.0▼-10.8

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps63.2▲+11.6

Snap %95.4%▲+8.2

50.5

2025

32

Nov 30
148

Dec 07
55

Dec 15
42

Dec 21
42

Jan 12
2026

40

Sep 13
27

Sep 20
31

Sep 27
115

Oct 01
12

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 50.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 49.6
Away 53% 9/17 · avg 68.6
vs TB No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 40.5 50% 5/10
O 45.5 30% 3/10
O 50.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 55.5 20% 2/10
O 60.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs TB

What TB allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds128.0#24
Receptions9.7#27
Targets15.9#29
Yds/Target8.1#15
Rec TD0.7#21

WRs vs TB · 2026

Each main WR who faced TB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-23.3

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average30% (3/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	CeeDee Lamb	9	124.5	-93%
Oct 08	George Pickens	130	56.2	+131%
Oct 04	Christian Watson	47	106.8	-56%
Oct 04	Matthew Golden	21	94.0	-78%
Sep 27	Justin Jefferson	32	75.3	-58%
Sep 27	Jordan Addison	90	24.3	+270%
Sep 20	Denzel Boston	95	58.8	+62%
Sep 20	Isaiah Bond	10	38.0	-74%
Sep 13	Tee Higgins	59	91.0	-35%
Sep 13	Ja'Marr Chase	12	69.2	-83%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%9.2 yds	6%5.5 yds	13%13.7 yds
Short	25%5.2 yds	13%7.9 yds	27%6.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 50.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	12	Under	53.5	55 (92%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	115	Over	46.5	70 (97%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	31	Under	52.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	27	Under	59.5	68 (97%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	40	Under	48.5	64 (96%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	42	Under	44.5	49 (86%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	42	Under	58.5	65 (88%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	55	Over	55.5	52 (79%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	148	Over	148.5	43 (83%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	32	Under	32.5	37 (86%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 49.5PrizePicks 50.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.