NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

33.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 50%5/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 47.8
Graph avg: 38.2
Graph median: 33.54–78
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+15.1

Att27.6▼-2.1

Cmp%65.9%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.4▼-0.2

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds47.8▲+10.1

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

33.5

2025

25

Sep 18
45

Sep 28
53

Oct 05
19

Nov 02
40

Nov 16
78

Dec 07
27

Dec 28
2026

69

Sep 17
22

Sep 27
4

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 43% 9/21 · avg 32.8
Away 52% 11/21 · avg 41.1
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 23.5 70% 7/10
O 28.5 50% 5/10
O 33.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 38.5 50% 5/10
O 43.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds222.6#19
Yds/Att7.1#14
Cmp%67.0%#4
Pass TD1.5#17
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.3

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake Maye	25	34.0	-26%
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	0	13.7	-100%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	36	9.0	+300%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	2	35.0	-94%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	39	36.8	+6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.5 yds	8%17.8 yds	7%14.8 yds
Short	28%7.7 yds	13%8.9 yds	38%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	4	Under	31.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	22	Under	33.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	69	Over	31.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	27	Under	33.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	78	Over	25.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	40	Over	35.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	19	Under	19.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	53	Over	53.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	45	Over	48.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	25	Under	23.5	60 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 33.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 14m ago.