NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Allgeier RB

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

46.5 Rush Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 10 20%2/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 23.8
Graph avg: 28.9
Graph median: 20.5-1–79
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Carries7.0▼-1.4

Rush Yds23.8▼-6.4

Rush TD0.2▼-0.3

Targets2.4▲+1.5

Rec2.4▲+1.6

Rec Yds8.8▲+3.2

Snaps35.0▲+15.7

Snap %51.6%▲+21.4

46.5

2025

34

Dec 07
18

Dec 11
79

Dec 21
23

Dec 29
16

Jan 04
2026

61

Sep 13
10

Sep 20
-1

Sep 27
42

Oct 04
7

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 46.5

Home 16% 3/19 · avg 25.3
Away 40% 8/20 · avg 39.9
vs LAR 0% 0/1 · avg 23.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 36.5 30% 3/10
O 41.5 30% 3/10
O 46.5 Today 20% 2/10
O 51.5 20% 2/10
O 56.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds95.5#16
Yds/Carry4.2#19
Rush TD0.6#15
Targets6.6#6
Rec Yds44.2#1

RBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main RB who faced LAR this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.9

Avg diff %-18%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	James Cook	111	105.2	+5%
Oct 04	Saquon Barkley	8	58.0	-86%
Sep 27	J.K. Dobbins	49	44.2	+11%
Sep 21	Cam Skattebo	36	64.5	-44%
Sep 10	Christian McCaffrey	68	54.5	+25%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	40%2.9 yds	10%8.5 yds	50%7.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 46.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	7	Under	27.5	32 (44%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	42	Under	21.5	36 (55%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	-1	Under	34.5	31 (36%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	10	Under	34.5	32 (64%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	61	Over	34.5	44 (59%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	16	Under	32.5	23 (37%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	23	Under	25.5	19 (36%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	79	Over	75.5	31 (40%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	18	Under	5.5	12 (17%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	34	Under	28.5	25 (39%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 46.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.