NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cam Ward QB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

11.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 20%2/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 11.8
Graph avg: 9.5
Graph median: 8.02–27
Over the close: 25%1/4

2026 per game

Pass Yds179.2▼-7.2

Att31.0▼-0.8

Cmp%63.2%▲+3.4

Pass TD0.6▼-0.3

INT0.6▲+0.2

Rush Yds11.8▲+2.4

Snaps58.0▼-1.2

Snap %100.0%▲+5.4

11.5

2025

4

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
9

Dec 21
10

Dec 28
11

Jan 04
2026

21

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
27

Oct 04
2

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 33% 4/12 · avg 12.7
Away 20% 2/10 · avg 6.6
vs IND 50% 1/2 · avg 8.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 100% 10/10
O 6.5 60% 6/10
O 11.5 Today 20% 2/10
O 16.5 20% 2/10
O 21.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds262.1#3
Yds/Att7.8#7
Cmp%62.3%#22
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att33.7#9

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.0

Avg diff %+119%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	6	3.0	+100%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	35	7.0	+400%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	10	15.2	-34%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	17	8.0	+112%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	40	34.7	+15%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	11%4.2 yds	41%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 11.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs HOU	2	Under	10.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	27	Over	10.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	2	Under	13.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	7	Under	11.5	53 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	21	Over	—	50 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	11	Under	—	5 (9%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	10	Under	—	74 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	9	Under	—	73 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	2	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	4	Under	—	66 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 14m ago.