NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Deshaun Watson QB

CLE vs BAL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

29.5 Rush Yds O -107U -117

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 48.9% Over

Season avg: 33.4
Graph avg: 25.6
Graph median: 24.00–45
Over the close: 60%3/5

2026 per game

Pass Yds202.0

Att29.6

Cmp%64.2%

Pass TD1.4

INT0.4

Rush Yds33.4

Snaps62.0

Snap %99.8%

29.5

2024

26

Sep 22
32

Sep 29
14

Oct 06
17

Oct 13
0

Oct 20
2026

38

Sep 13
22

Sep 20
45

Sep 27
22

Oct 01
40

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 29.5

Home 40% 2/5 · avg 26.4
Away 43% 3/7 · avg 26.1
vs BAL No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 70% 7/10
O 24.5 50% 5/10
O 29.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 34.5 30% 3/10
O 39.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds266.9#2
Yds/Att7.4#11
Cmp%66.9%#5
Pass TD1.0#29
Pass Att36.0#3

QBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main QB who faced BAL this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.9

Avg diff %+91%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Cam Ward	27	8.0	+238%
Sep 27	Dak Prescott	19	11.8	+62%
Sep 20	Tyler Shough	23	12.2	+88%
Sep 13	Daniel Jones	4	5.2	-24%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.9 yds	6%13.1 yds	5%10.6 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	18%7.6 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%16.0 yds#3	5%14.3 yds#19	7%17.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.8 yds#16	16%5.8 yds#27	35%5.2 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 5 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.2 yds	5%7.9 yds	5%15.3 yds
Short	44%5.8 yds	13%7.9 yds	27%5.1 yds

Last 5 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	5	5.8	29	20.0%
2	Denzel Boston WR	5	5.8	29	19.6%
3	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	5	5.4	27	18.3%
4	Quinshon Judkins RB	5	4.0	20	13.2%
5	Jerry Jeudy WR	4	3.8	15	13.1%
6	Isaiah Bond WR	3	3.0	9	9.4%
7	Raheim Sanders RB	5	2.4	12	8.6%
8	Blake Whiteheart TE	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	3	0.7	2	2.2%
10	Michael Burton FB	2	0.5	1	1.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 29.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NYJ	40	Over	25.5	68 (100%)
2026-10-01	4	vs PIT	22	Under	28.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CAR	45	Over	25.5	69 (99%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TB	22	Under	22.5	58 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	38	Over	16.5	51 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs CIN	0	Under	—	33 (39%)
2024-10-13	6	@ PHI	17	Under	—	56 (98%)
2024-10-06	5	@ WAS	14	Under	—	57 (92%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LV	32	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs NYG	26	Under	—	65 (97%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 28.5Underdog 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.