NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Christian Watson WR

GB vs DAL · Sun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET

4.5 Receptions O -143U +112

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 55.5% Over

Season avg: 5.2
Graph avg: 4.3
Graph median: 4.02–7
Over the close: 50%4/8

2026 per game

Targets8.0▲+2.4

Rec5.2▲+1.7

Rec Yds94.8▲+36.0

Rec TD1.2▲+0.6

Snaps49.6▲+6.4

Snap %78.8%▲+10.0

4.5

2025

4

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
2

Dec 20
5

Dec 27
3

Jan 10
2026

6

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
7

Sep 24
3

Oct 04
6

Oct 11
?

Oct 19

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 4.5

Home 27% 4/15 · avg 2.7
Away 7% 1/15 · avg 3.5
vs DAL No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 2.5 90% 9/10
O 3.5 60% 6/10
O 4.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 5.5 30% 3/10
O 6.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs DAL

What DAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds170.3#5
Receptions11.9#12
Targets17.6#15
Yds/Target9.7#3
Rec TD1.0#10

WRs vs DAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced DAL this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Chris Godwin Jr.	3	4.0	-25%
Oct 08	Emeka Egbuka	6	3.8	+60%
Oct 04	Nico Collins	7	6.0	+17%
Oct 04	Xavier Hutchinson	3	3.2	-8%
Sep 27	Zay Flowers	5	7.0	-29%
Sep 27	Rashod Bateman	2	3.5	-43%
Sep 20	Stefon Diggs	5	4.3	+15%
Sep 20	Terry McLaurin	2	4.0	-50%
Sep 13	Malik Nabers	6	5.8	+4%
Sep 13	Malachi Fields	2	2.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

GB offense

GB offense: Share of GB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.4 yds	5%19.9 yds	10%15.4 yds
Short	27%5.8 yds	16%6.1 yds	35%4.8 yds

Share of GB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DAL defense

DAL defense: Throws DAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.5 yds#9	2%24.3 yds#1	9%10.6 yds#19
Short	27%7.4 yds#2	16%10.1 yds#1	37%6.7 yds#3

Throws DAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%20.2 yds	15%26.9 yds	3%0.0 yds
Short	19%6.9 yds	18%8.2 yds	34%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of GB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Matthew Golden WR	5	8.8	44	24.0%
2	Christian Watson WR	5	8.0	40	22.7%
3	Tucker Kraft TE	5	5.8	29	16.1%
4	Pierre Strong RB	1	4.0	4	12.9%
5	Jayden Reed WR	2	4.0	8	10.5%
6	MarShawn Lloyd RB	5	2.6	13	7.7%
7	Skyy Moore WR	5	2.8	14	7.3%
8	Mark Redman TE	1	2.0	2	6.7%
9	Jonnu Smith TE	3	2.3	7	5.6%
10	Bo Melton WR	5	1.6	8	4.8%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 4.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CHI	6	Over	4.5	49 (80%)
2026-10-04	4	@ TB	3	Under	4.5	41 (68%)
2026-09-24	3	vs ATL	7	Over	4.5	53 (80%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NYJ	4	Under	4.5	53 (90%)
2026-09-13	1	@ MIN	6	Over	3.5	52 (76%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CHI	3	Under	3.5	57 (80%)
2025-12-27	17	vs BAL	5	Over	3.5	29 (62%)
2025-12-20	16	@ CHI	2	Under	2.5	45 (62%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DEN	3	Under	—	27 (41%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CHI	4	Under	—	44 (83%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 5.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.