NFL Prop Research

BT

Brian Thomas Jr. WR

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

1.5 Receptions O -127U +100

BookBetMGM · 1.5Caesars · 1.5ESPN BET · 1.5Fanatics · 1.5FanDuel · 1.5DraftKings · 1.5Bally Bet · 1.5

Hit rate · Last 10 80%8/10 Odds imply 52.8% Over

Season avg

1.8

Graph avg

2.4

Graph median

2.50–4

Over the close

20%2/10

2026 per game

Targets3.4▼-2.8

Rec1.8▼-1.5

Rec Yds21.0▼-27.5

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps30.0▼-22.3

Snap %47.8%▼-29.8

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

• Home 85% 17/20 · avg 3.6
• Away 100% 17/17 · avg 4.4
• vs HOU 100% 3/3 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

• O 0.5 90% 9/10
• O 1.5 Today 80% 8/10
• O 2.5 50% 5/10
• O 3.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds167.2#8
• Receptions11.8#13
• Targets18.9#9
• Yds/Target8.8#9
• Rec TD1.1#8

WRs vs HOU · 2026

Each main WR who faced HOU this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.8

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	TEN Carnell Tate	1	5.5	-82%
Oct 11	TEN Wan'Dale Robinson	6	4.0	+50%
Oct 04	DAL George Pickens	2	6.2	-68%
Oct 04	DAL CeeDee Lamb	17	5.5	+209%
Sep 27	IND Keenan Allen	6	4.0	+50%
Sep 27	IND Josh Downs	5	3.8	+33%
Sep 20	CIN Tee Higgins	5	5.5	-9%
Sep 20	CIN Ja'Marr Chase	7	5.0	+40%
Sep 13	BUF Khalil Shakir	4	3.5	+14%
Sep 13	BUF Keon Coleman	1	3.5	-71%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%3.1 yds	0%	20%13.0 yds
Short	37%7.5 yds	2%0.0 yds	24%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · JAX 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	0	Under	2.5	37 (51%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	2	Over	2.5	38 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	1	Under	2.5	23 (37%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	3	Over	2.5	32 (54%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	3	Over	2.5	20 (35%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	2	Over	2.5	43 (77%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	3	Over	3.5	35 (57%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	4	Over	4.5	54 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	2	Over	2.5	51 (73%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	4	Over	4.5	48 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.