NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bucky Irving RB

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Receptions O -186U +145

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 61.4% Over

Season avg: 3.0
Graph avg: 2.4
Graph median: 2.00–7
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Carries15.4▼-1.9

Rush Yds81.2▲+22.4

Rush TD0.4▲+0.3

Targets3.6▲+0.1

Rec3.0+0.0

Rec Yds14.2▼-13.5

Snaps39.6▼-2.5

Snap %60.8%▼-0.8

1.5

2025

2

Dec 07
1

Dec 11
0

Dec 21
5

Dec 28
1

Jan 03
2026

7

Sep 13
4

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
2

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 74% 14/19 · avg 2.6
Away 86% 12/14 · avg 3.2
vs PIT No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 8/10
O 1.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 2.5 30% 3/10
O 3.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds87.8#21
Yds/Carry4.2#18
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets6.2#8
Rec Yds36.4#7

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.6

Avg diff %+41%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jonathan Taylor	3	2.5	+20%
Oct 01	Quinshon Judkins	6	3.0	+100%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	2	5.5	-64%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	1	3.5	-71%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	8	2.5	+220%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%72.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	49%4.9 yds	5%6.5 yds	44%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	2	Over	2.5	39 (54%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	0	Under	2.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	2	Over	2.5	36 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	4	Over	2.5	51 (78%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	7	Over	2.5	35 (61%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	1	Under	2.5	42 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	5	Over	2.5	36 (54%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	40 (62%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	1	Under	1.5	37 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	2	Over	2.5	36 (49%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.