NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Emeka Egbuka WR

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

3.5 Receptions O -138U +108

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 50%5/10 Odds imply 54.7% Over

Season avg: 4.2
Graph avg: 3.3
Graph median: 3.51–6
Over the close: 20%2/10

2026 per game

Targets6.6▼-0.9

Rec4.2▲+0.5

Rec Yds38.4▼-16.8

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps55.8▲+3.7

Snap %85.8%▲+8.2

3.5

2025

4

Sep 28
2

Oct 12
6

Nov 09
4

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
4

Dec 11
1

Jan 03
2026

3

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 3.5
Away 64% 7/11 · avg 4.1
vs PIT No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 90% 9/10
O 2.5 60% 6/10
O 3.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 4.5 20% 2/10
O 5.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds151.9#11
Receptions10.4#19
Targets17.0#19
Yds/Target8.9#7
Rec TD0.8#18

WRs vs PIT · 2026

Each main WR who faced PIT this season: receptions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.2

Avg diff %-4%

Beat their average50% (5/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Keenan Allen	5	4.3	+15%
Oct 11	Josh Downs	3	4.2	-29%
Oct 01	KC Concepcion	5	3.2	+54%
Oct 01	Denzel Boston	4	3.0	+33%
Sep 27	Tee Higgins	6	5.2	+14%
Sep 27	Ja'Marr Chase	9	4.5	+100%
Sep 20	Mack Hollins	2	4.3	-54%
Sep 20	DeMario Douglas	1	3.0	-67%
Sep 13	Drake London	2	6.2	-68%
Sep 13	Jahan Dotson	1	1.8	-43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%2.1 yds	7%10.0 yds	8%8.6 yds
Short	24%6.7 yds	17%6.8 yds	27%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Receptions	vs 3.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	2	Under	3.5	59 (94%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	5	Over	4.5	51 (74%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	3	Under	4.5	56 (86%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	1	Under	1.5	39 (58%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	4	Over	3.5	44 (64%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	2	Under	4.5	65 (88%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	4	Over	4.5	52 (85%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NE	6	Over	6.5	61 (88%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SF	2	Under	5.5	28 (53%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	4	Over	4.5	64 (89%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.