NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tyler Higbee TE

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

34.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 50%5/10 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 56.0
Graph avg: 34.2
Graph median: 35.00–67
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Targets6.2▲+3.0

Rec5.0▲+2.8

Rec Yds56.0▲+27.9

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps45.8▲+13.1

Snap %55.8%▲+6.8

34.5

2025

37

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
40

Oct 12
19

Oct 19
33

Nov 09
45

Jan 10
27

Jan 18
12

Jan 25
2026

62

Sep 27
67

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 34.5

Home 40% 4/10 · avg 36.0
Away 50% 6/12 · avg 33.9
vs ARI 50% 1/2 · avg 50.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 24.5 70% 7/10
O 29.5 60% 6/10
O 34.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 39.5 40% 4/10
O 44.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds78.7#2
Receptions6.8#3
Targets8.7#3
Yds/Target9.0#3
Rec TD1.0#3

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.2

Avg diff %-4%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Sam LaPorta	88	57.0	+54%
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	66	54.5	+21%
Sep 27	George Kittle	82	46.5	+76%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	8	26.0	-69%
Sep 13	Charlie Kolar	0	29.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%29.0 yds	2%16.0 yds	19%18.5 yds
Short	12%9.0 yds	10%7.5 yds	52%7.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 34.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	67	Over	32.5	55 (65%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	62	Over	9.5	61 (71%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	12	Under	15.5	12 (20%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	27	Under	19.5	8 (10%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	45	Over	45.5	39 (51%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	33	Under	22.5	37 (54%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	19	Under	19.5	26 (37%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	40	Over	15.5	35 (66%)
2025-09-21	3	@ PHI	0	Under	20.5	36 (55%)
2025-09-14	2	@ TEN	37	Over	18.5	46 (75%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.