NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Ladd McConkey WR

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

41.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 45.8
Graph avg: 36.0
Graph median: 33.50–82
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Targets4.2▼-2.2

Rec3.0▼-1.1

Rec Yds45.8▼-2.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps35.8▼-16.6

Snap %54.2%▼-23.9

41.5

2025

39

Nov 30
12

Dec 08
20

Dec 14
43

Dec 21
31

Dec 27
32

Jan 11
2026

82

Sep 13
35

Sep 20
66

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 41.5

Home 63% 12/19 · avg 65.0
Away 68% 13/19 · avg 58.7
vs KC 67% 2/3 · avg 53.7

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 31.5 60% 6/10
O 36.5 40% 4/10
O 41.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 46.5 20% 2/10
O 51.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs KC

What KC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds126.2#26
Receptions10.4#18
Targets18.5#13
Yds/Target6.8#30
Rec TD0.3#32

WRs vs KC · 2026

Each main WR who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.5

Avg diff %-7%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tre Tucker	44	57.5	-23%
Oct 04	Cody White	36	18.0	+100%
Sep 27	Malik Washington	56	51.5	+9%
Sep 27	Ryan Miller	15	38.5	-61%
Sep 20	Keenan Allen	5	46.7	-89%
Sep 20	Josh Downs	72	44.2	+63%
Sep 14	Jaylen Waddle	2	45.2	-96%
Sep 14	Pat Bryant	42	30.3	+38%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	16%9.9 yds	7%13.7 yds	12%10.8 yds
Short	16%6.9 yds	12%4.6 yds	37%7.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 41.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	0	Under	47.5	24 (34%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	66	Over	60.5	61 (88%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	35	Under	45.5	31 (46%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	82	Over	56.5	27 (49%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	32	Under	30.5	53 (88%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	31	Under	36.5	56 (89%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	43	Over	43.5	48 (75%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	20	Under	20.5	49 (74%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	12	Under	15.5	64 (86%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	39	Under	30.5	51 (76%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 41.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.