NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Keenan Allen WR

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

42.5 Rec Yds O -120U -111

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 30%3/10 Odds imply 50.9% Over

Season avg: 36.2
Graph avg: 34.9
Graph median: 36.55–53
Over the close: 14%1/7

2026 per game

Targets7.2+0.0

Rec4.5▼-0.2

Rec Yds36.2▼-8.3

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps38.2▲+1.2

Snap %59.0%▲+3.3

42.5

2025

37

Sep 28
27

Oct 12
41

Nov 02
53

Nov 16
36

Dec 14
44

Dec 21
36

Jan 04
25

Jan 11
2026

5

Sep 20
45

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 42.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 49.8
Away 35% 6/17 · avg 40.9
vs TEN 0% 0/2 · avg 35.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 32.5 70% 7/10
O 37.5 40% 4/10
O 42.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 47.5 10% 1/10
O 52.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds166.2#9
Receptions12.2#9
Targets16.8#21
Yds/Target9.9#1
Rec TD1.0#11

WRs vs TEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.5

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Nico Collins	56	96.5	-42%
Oct 11	Jaylin Noel	41	46.5	-12%
Oct 04	Zay Flowers	118	95.7	+23%
Oct 04	Rashod Bateman	46	46.8	-2%
Sep 27	Malik Nabers	26	75.8	-66%
Sep 27	Malachi Fields	19	31.8	-40%
Sep 20	DeVonta Smith	117	59.0	+98%
Sep 20	Dontayvion Wicks	74	46.5	+59%
Sep 13	Garrett Wilson	79	73.8	+7%
Sep 13	Isaiah Williams	7	36.0	-81%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	4%8.7 yds
Short	38%5.1 yds	15%7.2 yds	40%3.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 42.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	45	Over	30.5	32 (45%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	5	Under	29.5	33 (51%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	25	Under	33.5	36 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	@ DEN	36	Under	—	38 (54%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	44	Over	44.5	30 (47%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	36	Under	36.5	28 (42%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	53	Over	55.5	36 (75%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	41	Under	41.5	24 (37%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	27	Under	—	36 (56%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	37	Under	—	49 (78%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 43.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 9m ago.