NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jonathan Taylor RB

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

18.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 70%7/10 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 21.2
Graph avg: 25.7
Graph median: 22.04–50
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Carries20.2▲+1.2

Rush Yds79.6▼-13.6

Rush TD1.2▲+0.1

Targets3.8▲+0.6

Rec2.6▼-0.1

Rec Yds21.2▼-1.0

Snaps53.6▲+1.7

Snap %82.4%▼-0.2

18.5

2025

50

Sep 14
20

Oct 05
14

Oct 12
21

Oct 26
42

Nov 09
36

Nov 30
33

Dec 22
14

Dec 28
2026

23

Sep 13
4

Sep 27
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 18.9
Away 28% 5/18 · avg 15.6
vs TEN 33% 1/3 · avg 12.3

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 90% 9/10
O 13.5 90% 9/10
O 18.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 23.5 40% 4/10
O 28.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds78.4#26
Yds/Carry3.5#30
Rush TD0.6#19
Targets4.6#28
Rec Yds33.6#13

RBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.6

Avg diff %+13%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	David Montgomery	0	16.8	-100%
Oct 04	Derrick Henry	6	14.0	-57%
Sep 27	Cam Skattebo	40	9.8	+310%
Sep 20	Will Shipley	5	6.5	-23%
Sep 13	Breece Hall	16	43.0	-63%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%0.0 yds
Short	56%6.7 yds	5%10.0 yds	36%3.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	4	Under	21.5	60 (85%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	23	Over	18.5	48 (89%)
2025-12-28	17	vs JAX	14	Under	10.5	51 (89%)
2025-12-22	16	vs SF	33	Over	33.5	53 (88%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	36	Over	17.5	53 (98%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	42	Over	45.5	70 (91%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	21	Over	10.5	40 (75%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	14	Under	14.5	54 (92%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	20	Over	20.5	49 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	50	Over	50.5	66 (93%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 18.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.