NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Luther Burden III WR

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

50.5 Rec Yds O -125U -108

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 40%4/10 Odds imply 51.7% Over

Season avg: 53.2
Graph avg: 42.6
Graph median: 40.0-4–138
Over the close: 50%4/8

2026 per game

Targets7.0▲+2.6

Rec4.6▲+1.5

Rec Yds53.2▲+11.0

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps49.2▲+20.1

Snap %64.8%▲+23.0

50.5

2025

5

Sep 14
-4

Sep 28
51

Oct 13
-1

Oct 26
27

Nov 16
33

Nov 28
67

Dec 07
138

Dec 28
2026

63

Sep 13
47

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 50.5

Home 42% 5/12 · avg 46.5
Away 40% 4/10 · avg 42.6
vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 40.5 50% 5/10
O 45.5 50% 5/10
O 50.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 55.5 30% 3/10
O 60.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds169.4#6
Receptions13.1#5
Targets21.6#1
Yds/Target7.8#19
Rec TD1.1#6

WRs vs ATL · 2026

Each main WR who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.9

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Zay Flowers	53	117.3	-55%
Oct 11	Rashod Bateman	62	42.8	+45%
Oct 05	Chris Olave	116	105.2	+10%
Oct 05	Devaughn Vele	54	49.5	+9%
Sep 24	Christian Watson	96	94.5	+2%
Sep 24	Matthew Golden	100	74.2	+35%
Sep 20	Tetairoa McMillan	101	94.7	+7%
Sep 20	Jalen Coker	66	78.0	-15%
Sep 13	DK Metcalf	40	46.2	-14%
Sep 13	Roman Wilson	26	40.5	-36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.8 yds	10%19.7 yds	7%4.4 yds
Short	26%7.7 yds	20%7.1 yds	30%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 50.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	47	Under	46.5	53 (77%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	63	Over	57.5	55 (73%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	138	Over	119.5	38 (58%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	67	Over	—	50 (71%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	33	Under	33.5	44 (51%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	27	Under	30.5	33 (44%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	-1	Under	18.5	11 (17%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	51	Over	10.5	15 (23%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	-4	Under	10.5	19 (28%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	5	Under	—	12 (18%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 9m ago.