NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Khalil Shakir WR

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

38.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 50%5/10 Odds imply —

Season avg: 51.2
Graph avg: 37.6
Graph median: 40.5-3–82
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Targets5.2▼-1.2

Rec3.6▼-1.5

Rec Yds51.2▲+2.5

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps40.8▲+0.2

Snap %64.0%▲+3.4

38.5

2025

45

Sep 18
69

Sep 28
45

Oct 05
43

Nov 02
-3

Nov 16
16

Dec 07
35

Dec 28
2026

38

Sep 17
6

Sep 27
82

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 38.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 45.0
Away 75% 15/20 · avg 59.1
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 70% 7/10
O 33.5 70% 7/10
O 38.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 43.5 40% 4/10
O 48.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LV

What LV allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds146.7#14
Receptions10.3#21
Targets16.9#20
Yds/Target8.7#11
Rec TD0.6#26

WRs vs LV · 2026

Each main WR who faced LV this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+12.4

Avg diff %+61%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Romeo Doubs	16	50.8	-68%
Oct 11	DeMario Douglas	65	20.5	+217%
Oct 04	Tyquan Thornton	111	36.0	+208%
Oct 04	Xavier Worthy	70	21.0	+233%
Sep 27	Chris Olave	107	107.5	+0%
Sep 27	Devaughn Vele	39	53.2	-27%
Sep 20	Ladd McConkey	35	49.3	-29%
Sep 20	Tre Harris	53	43.0	+23%
Sep 13	Malik Washington	53	52.2	+1%
Sep 13	Chris Bell	25	16.8	+49%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	8%21.0 yds	2%37.0 yds
Short	30%5.9 yds	22%12.2 yds	39%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 38.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	82	Over	38.5	45 (76%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	6	Under	42.5	48 (73%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	38	Under	43.5	36 (49%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	35	Under	39.5	59 (78%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	16	Under	25.5	32 (50%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	-3	Under	10.5	30 (54%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	43	Over	43.5	40 (61%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	45	Over	40.5	43 (63%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	69	Over	65.5	31 (53%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	45	Over	30.5	42 (70%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 38.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 8m ago.