NFL Prop Research

XH

Xavier Hutchinson WR

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

14.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

BookCaesars · 14.5ESPN BET · 14.5FanDuel · 14.5DraftKings · 14.5Fanatics · 15.5BetMGM · 17.5

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 80%8/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg

46.2

Graph avg

31.4

Graph median

30.00–65

Over the close

67%6/9

2026 per game

Targets6.2▲+2.1

Rec3.2▲+0.9

Rec Yds46.2▲+18.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps36.4▼-4.7

Snap %52.6%▼-7.1

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

• Home 68% 13/19 · avg 25.7
• Away 55% 11/20 · avg 21.9
• vs JAX 100% 1/1 · avg 16.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

• O 4.5 90% 9/10
• O 9.5 90% 9/10
• O 14.5 Today 80% 8/10
• O 19.5 70% 7/10
• O 24.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds172.6#4
• Receptions13.4#3
• Targets21.3#3
• Yds/Target8.1#14
• Rec TD0.4#30

WRs vs JAX · 2026

Each main WR who faced JAX this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+11.4

Avg diff %+38%

Beat their average70% (7/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	PHI Dontayvion Wicks	63	49.2	+28%
Oct 11	PHI Makai Lemon	43	16.2	+165%
Oct 04	CIN Tee Higgins	157	66.5	+136%
Oct 04	CIN Ja'Marr Chase	27	65.5	-59%
Sep 27	NE Romeo Doubs	49	42.5	+15%
Sep 27	NE Mack Hollins	87	40.7	+114%
Sep 20	DEN Pat Bryant	0	44.3	-100%
Sep 20	DEN Courtland Sutton	25	19.6	+28%
Sep 13	CLE Denzel Boston	59	67.8	-13%
Sep 13	CLE KC Concepcion	43	26.5	+62%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	3%0.0 yds	14%7.6 yds
Short	23%3.4 yds	31%10.1 yds	26%6.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · HOU 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	65	Over	14.5	27 (41%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	51	Over	38.5	29 (54%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	44	Over	30.5	63 (84%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	21	Over	21.5	45 (66%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	21	Over	21.5	31 (48%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	0	Under	0.5	28 (40%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	39	Over	7.5	42 (55%)
2025-11-16	11	@ TEN	42	Over	36.5	37 (53%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	13	Under	—	59 (78%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	18	Over	14.5	47 (67%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.