NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jahan Dotson WR

ATL vs CHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

23.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 10%1/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 29.8
Graph avg: 11.7
Graph median: 7.00–54
Over the close: 33%3/9

2026 per game

Targets3.4▲+1.1

Rec1.6▲+0.5

Rec Yds29.8▲+13.4

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps43.0▲+7.0

Snap %66.6%▲+9.3

23.5

2025

0

Sep 28
17

Oct 09
0

Nov 10
0

Nov 23
3

Dec 08
13

Dec 20
0

Dec 28
2026

19

Sep 13
11

Sep 24
54

Oct 05
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 23.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 25.1
Away 12% 2/17 · avg 10.5
vs CHI 0% 0/1 · avg 12.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 13.5 30% 3/10
O 18.5 20% 2/10
O 23.5 Today 10% 1/10
O 28.5 10% 1/10
O 33.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds182.7#2
Receptions12.3#7
Targets18.8#11
Yds/Target9.7#2
Rec TD1.1#7

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.2

Avg diff %+42%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Christian Watson	143	82.8	+73%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	123	68.5	+80%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	27	86.8	-69%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	73	19.5	+274%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	65	85.0	-24%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	32	57.0	-44%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	55	67.7	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	21	47.3	-56%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	75	103.3	-27%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	138	42.0	+229%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.1 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%11.8 yds
Short	33%6.4 yds	19%6.6 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.1 yds#12	4%21.1 yds#5	9%15.2 yds#5
Short	31%4.9 yds#30	19%8.5 yds#6	30%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	18%3.2 yds	9%10.3 yds	27%7.8 yds
Short	15%6.0 yds	9%5.0 yds	21%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	5	7.2	36	28.6%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	5	5.0	25	21.0%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	5	3.4	17	13.7%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	5	3.0	15	11.3%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Zachariah Branch WR	5	1.6	8	6.2%
7	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	5	1.4	7	5.7%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	3	1.3	4	4.7%
9	Brian Robinson RB	5	0.8	4	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 23.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	54	Over	19.5	36 (63%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	11	Under	17.5	47 (66%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PIT	19	Under	14.5	38 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	0	Under	0.5	26 (48%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	13	Under	10.5	46 (66%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	3	Under	10.5	35 (49%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	0	Under	10.5	34 (54%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	0	Under	—	19 (30%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	17	Under	17.5	43 (75%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	0	Under	10.5	31 (54%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 23.5Underdog 24.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.