NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tetairoa McMillan WR

CAR vs PHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

64.5 Rec Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 60%6/10 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 96.2
Graph avg: 73.0
Graph median: 73.05–192
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Targets9.8▲+2.6

Rec6.5▲+2.3

Rec Yds96.2▲+35.4

Rec TD0.5▲+0.1

Snaps62.2▲+7.5

Snap %86.5%▼-0.8

64.5

2025

73

Oct 05
29

Oct 12
99

Oct 26
60

Nov 09
43

Nov 30
73

Dec 21
5

Dec 28
81

Jan 10
2026

75

Sep 13
192

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 64.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 70.7
Away 46% 5/11 · avg 63.8
vs PHI No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 44.5 70% 7/10
O 54.5 70% 7/10
O 64.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 74.5 40% 4/10
O 84.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds142.7#16
Receptions10.3#22
Targets17.1#18
Yds/Target8.3#13
Rec TD0.7#22

WRs vs PHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced PHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-9.2

Avg diff %-12%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Parker Washington	124	57.0	+118%
Oct 11	Jakobi Meyers	37	41.2	-10%
Oct 04	Puka Nacua	125	106.0	+18%
Oct 04	Davante Adams	32	102.2	-69%
Sep 28	Rome Odunze	44	57.2	-23%
Sep 28	Luther Burden III	61	51.2	+19%
Sep 20	Carnell Tate	27	61.8	-56%
Sep 20	Wan'Dale Robinson	9	41.8	-78%
Sep 13	Terry McLaurin	14	63.0	-78%
Sep 13	Stefon Diggs	55	38.3	+43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CAR offense

CAR offense: Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.2 yds	4%16.7 yds	6%17.1 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	15%8.5 yds	34%5.1 yds

Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%10.4 yds#15	3%21.6 yds#3	7%11.8 yds#14
Short	33%5.7 yds#17	20%6.3 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#23

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%7.7 yds	6%25.5 yds	11%17.1 yds
Short	22%5.6 yds	14%9.9 yds	33%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CAR targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tetairoa McMillan WR	4	9.8	39	26.9%
2	Jalen Coker WR	3	7.3	22	21.4%
3	Darren Waller TE	4	4.8	19	12.4%
4	Tommy Tremble TE	4	3.8	15	10.2%
5	Xavier Legette WR	2	3.0	6	9.2%
6	John Metchie III WR	3	3.3	10	8.2%
7	Chuba Hubbard RB	4	2.8	11	7.4%
8	Brycen Tremayne WR	4	2.2	9	5.5%
9	Mitchell Evans TE	4	1.8	7	4.7%
10	Jonathon Brooks RB	2	1.5	3	4.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 64.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DET	192	Over	72.5	67 (89%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CHI	75	Over	59.5	56 (82%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs LA	81	Over	65.5	60 (90%)
2025-12-28	17	vs SEA	5	Under	10.5	44 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	vs TB	73	Over	78.5	47 (87%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LA	43	Under	10.5	47 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NO	60	Under	60.5	48 (91%)
2025-10-26	8	vs BUF	99	Over	100.5	57 (93%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DAL	29	Under	29.5	62 (93%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIA	73	Over	63.5	63 (90%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 64.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.