NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tetairoa McMillan WR

CAR vs PHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

64.5 Rec Yds O -110U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 40%4/10 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 96.2
Graph avg: 63.4
Graph median: 54.017–130
Over the close: 56%5/9

2026 per game

Targets9.8▲+2.6

Rec6.5▲+2.3

Rec Yds96.2▲+35.4

Rec TD0.5▲+0.1

Snaps62.2▲+7.5

Snap %86.5%▼-0.8

64.5

2025

100

Sep 14
62

Sep 28
33

Oct 19
46

Nov 02
130

Nov 16
35

Nov 24
25

Dec 14
85

Jan 03
2026

101

Sep 20
17

Sep 27
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 64.5

Home 54% 6/11 · avg 70.7
Away 46% 5/11 · avg 63.8
vs PHI No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 44.5 60% 6/10
O 54.5 50% 5/10
O 64.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 74.5 40% 4/10
O 84.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds142.7#16
Receptions10.3#22
Targets17.1#18
Yds/Target8.3#13
Rec TD0.7#22

WRs vs PHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced PHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-9.2

Avg diff %-12%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Parker Washington	124	57.0	+118%
Oct 11	Jakobi Meyers	37	41.2	-10%
Oct 04	Puka Nacua	125	106.0	+18%
Oct 04	Davante Adams	32	102.2	-69%
Sep 28	Rome Odunze	44	57.2	-23%
Sep 28	Luther Burden III	61	51.2	+19%
Sep 20	Carnell Tate	27	61.8	-56%
Sep 20	Wan'Dale Robinson	9	41.8	-78%
Sep 13	Terry McLaurin	14	63.0	-78%
Sep 13	Stefon Diggs	55	38.3	+43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CAR offense

CAR offense: Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.2 yds	4%16.7 yds	6%17.1 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	15%8.5 yds	34%5.1 yds

Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%10.4 yds#15	3%21.6 yds#3	7%11.8 yds#14
Short	33%5.7 yds#17	20%6.3 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#23

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%7.7 yds	6%25.5 yds	11%17.1 yds
Short	22%5.6 yds	14%9.9 yds	33%8.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CAR targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tetairoa McMillan WR	4	9.8	39	26.9%
2	Jalen Coker WR	3	7.3	22	21.4%
3	Darren Waller TE	4	4.8	19	12.4%
4	Tommy Tremble TE	4	3.8	15	10.2%
5	Xavier Legette WR	2	3.0	6	9.2%
6	John Metchie III WR	3	3.3	10	8.2%
7	Chuba Hubbard RB	4	2.8	11	7.4%
8	Brycen Tremayne WR	4	2.2	9	5.5%
9	Mitchell Evans TE	4	1.8	7	4.7%
10	Jonathon Brooks RB	2	1.5	3	4.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 64.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-27	3	@ CLE	17	Under	62.5	73 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ATL	101	Over	58.5	53 (80%)
2026-01-03	18	@ TB	85	Over	60.5	45 (88%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NO	25	Under	25.5	48 (84%)
2025-11-24	12	@ SF	35	Under	45.5	42 (91%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ATL	130	Over	120.5	69 (86%)
2025-11-02	9	@ GB	46	Under	—	49 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	@ NYJ	33	Under	53.5	62 (87%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NE	62	Under	58.5	65 (94%)
2025-09-14	2	@ ARI	100	Over	95.5	72 (85%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 64.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.