NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Chris Godwin Jr. WR

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

27.5 Rec Yds O -116U -109

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply 50.7% Over

Season avg: 35.8
Graph avg: 40.0
Graph median: 34.08–108
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Targets4.2▼-1.5

Rec3.8▲+0.1

Rec Yds35.8▼-4.2

Rec TD0.0▼-0.2

Snaps53.4▲+5.8

Snap %82.2%▲+11.3

27.5

2025

55

Dec 07
20

Dec 11
30

Dec 21
108

Dec 28
8

Jan 03
2026

40

Sep 13
46

Sep 20
25

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
37

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 27.5

Home 67% 8/12 · avg 46.6
Away 78% 7/9 · avg 61.8
vs PIT No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 90% 9/10
O 22.5 80% 8/10
O 27.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 32.5 50% 5/10
O 37.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds151.9#11
Receptions10.4#19
Targets17.0#19
Yds/Target8.9#7
Rec TD0.8#18

WRs vs PIT · 2026

Each main WR who faced PIT this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-11.7

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Josh Downs	47	50.5	-7%
Oct 11	Keenan Allen	45	33.3	+35%
Oct 01	Denzel Boston	89	60.2	+48%
Oct 01	Isaiah Bond	2	42.0	-95%
Sep 27	Tee Higgins	90	83.2	+8%
Sep 27	Ja'Marr Chase	98	47.8	+105%
Sep 20	Mack Hollins	18	63.7	-72%
Sep 20	DeMario Douglas	9	34.5	-74%
Sep 13	Drake London	29	114.8	-75%
Sep 13	Jahan Dotson	19	32.5	-42%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	2%0.0 yds	0%	2%24.0 yds
Short	41%6.6 yds	20%11.1 yds	35%7.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 27.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	37	Over	31.5	63 (88%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	31	Over	27.5	56 (89%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	25	Under	35.5	43 (62%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	46	Over	37.5	56 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	40	Over	48.5	49 (86%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	8	Under	0.5	47 (70%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	108	Over	30.5	53 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	30	Over	30.5	41 (64%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	20	Under	15.5	66 (96%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	55	Over	55.5	51 (69%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 28.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.