NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Zay Flowers WR

BAL vs CLE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

58.5 Rec Yds O -115U -110

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 60%6/10 Odds imply 50.5% Over

Season avg: 101.2
Graph avg: 65.9
Graph median: 67.56–124
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Targets7.8▲+0.8

Rec6.5▲+1.4

Rec Yds101.2▲+30.0

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps37.5▼-14.1

Snap %54.2%▼-32.2

58.5

2025

75

Sep 14
13

Sep 22
72

Oct 05
46

Oct 12
63

Oct 26
58

Nov 23
6

Nov 27
124

Dec 07
84

Dec 21
2026

118

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 58.5

Home 61% 11/18 · avg 68.8
Away 60% 12/20 · avg 71.8
vs CLE 75% 3/4 · avg 70.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 48.5 70% 7/10
O 53.5 70% 7/10
O 58.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 63.5 50% 5/10
O 68.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CLE

What CLE allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds132.4#20
Receptions10.2#24
Targets17.6#16
Yds/Target7.5#24
Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs CLE · 2026

Each main WR who faced CLE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-24.4

Avg diff %-36%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Garrett Wilson	104	67.5	+54%
Oct 11	Isaiah Williams	16	33.8	-53%
Oct 01	Germie Bernard	11	43.0	-74%
Oct 01	Michael Pittman	15	37.0	-59%
Sep 27	Tetairoa McMillan	17	122.7	-86%
Sep 27	Jalen Coker	18	102.0	-82%
Sep 20	Emeka Egbuka	16	44.0	-64%
Sep 20	Ted Hurst III	27	33.7	-20%
Sep 13	Parker Washington	83	67.2	+23%
Sep 13	Jakobi Meyers	40	40.5	-1%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%19.9 yds	3%14.1 yds	7%14.9 yds
Short	27%6.6 yds	24%9.8 yds	31%5.3 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CLE defense

CLE defense: Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	5%16.4 yds#13	7%6.2 yds#30
Short	30%4.7 yds#31	14%7.0 yds#15	37%6.1 yds#8

Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%47.0 yds	8%12.8 yds	12%20.1 yds
Short	22%7.1 yds	22%15.5 yds	31%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	4	7.8	31	29.6%
2	Mark Andrews TE	5	6.0	30	22.8%
3	Rashod Bateman WR	5	4.2	21	15.3%
4	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	1	3.0	3	12.5%
5	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
6	Matthew Hibner TE	3	1.7	5	7.0%
7	Justice Hill RB	5	2.0	10	6.9%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Derrick Henry RB	5	1.8	9	6.6%
10	Devontez Walker WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 58.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	118	Over	72.5	47 (73%)
2025-12-21	16	vs NE	84	Over	79.5	49 (89%)
2025-12-07	14	vs PIT	124	Over	90.5	74 (92%)
2025-11-27	13	vs CIN	6	Under	5.5	57 (95%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	58	Under	66.5	53 (84%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	63	Over	57.5	59 (95%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	46	Under	46.5	71 (91%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	72	Over	47.5	36 (84%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	13	Under	30.5	49 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	75	Over	75.5	44 (79%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.