NFL Prop Research

ZF

Zay Flowers WR

BAL vs CLE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

58.5 Rec Yds O -115U -110

BookCaesars · 58.5BetMGM · 58.5FanDuel · 58.5DraftKings · 58.5Fanatics · 55.5

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 80%8/10 Odds imply 50.5% Over

Season avg

101.2

Graph avg

81.4

Graph median

74.530–150

Over the close

50%5/10

2026 per game

Targets7.8▲+0.8

Rec6.5▲+1.4

Rec Yds101.2▲+30.0

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps37.5▼-14.1

Snap %54.2%▼-32.2

Splits all logged games · over 58.5

• Home 61% 11/18 · avg 68.8
• Away 60% 12/20 · avg 71.8
• vs CLE 75% 3/4 · avg 70.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

• O 48.5 90% 9/10
• O 53.5 80% 8/10
• O 58.5 Today 80% 8/10
• O 63.5 80% 8/10
• O 68.5 60% 6/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CLE

What CLE allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds132.4#20
• Receptions10.2#24
• Targets17.6#16
• Yds/Target7.5#24
• Rec TD1.3#2

WRs vs CLE · 2026

Each main WR who faced CLE this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-24.4

Avg diff %-36%

Beat their average20% (2/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	NYJ Garrett Wilson	104	67.5	+54%
Oct 11	NYJ Isaiah Williams	16	33.8	-53%
Oct 01	PIT Germie Bernard	11	43.0	-74%
Oct 01	PIT Michael Pittman	15	37.0	-59%
Sep 27	CAR Tetairoa McMillan	17	122.7	-86%
Sep 27	CAR Jalen Coker	18	102.0	-82%
Sep 20	TB Emeka Egbuka	16	44.0	-64%
Sep 20	TB Ted Hurst III	27	33.7	-20%
Sep 13	JAX Parker Washington	83	67.2	+23%
Sep 13	JAX Jakobi Meyers	40	40.5	-1%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%19.9 yds	3%14.1 yds	7%14.9 yds
Short	27%6.6 yds	24%9.8 yds	31%5.3 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CLE defense

CLE defense: Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	5%16.4 yds#13	7%6.2 yds#30
Short	30%4.7 yds#31	14%7.0 yds#15	37%6.1 yds#8

Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%47.0 yds	8%12.8 yds	12%20.1 yds
Short	22%7.1 yds	22%15.5 yds	31%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · BAL 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	4	7.8	31	29.6%
2	Mark Andrews TE	5	6.0	30	22.8%
3	Rashod Bateman WR	5	4.2	21	15.3%
4	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	1	3.0	3	12.5%
5	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
6	Matthew Hibner TE	3	1.7	5	7.0%
7	Justice Hill RB	5	2.0	10	6.9%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Derrick Henry RB	5	1.8	9	6.6%
10	Devontez Walker WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 58.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ATL	53	Under	68.5	62 (82%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	84	Over	46.5	21 (33%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	150	Over	65.5	20 (29%)
2026-01-04	18	@ PIT	138	Over	74.5	50 (98%)
2025-12-27	17	@ GB	30	Under	30.5	52 (68%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CIN	68	Over	68.5	32 (78%)
2025-11-16	11	@ CLE	78	Over	70.5	54 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	75	Over	75.5	58 (83%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	64	Over	68.5	46 (82%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	74	Over	66.5	48 (87%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.