NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Daniel Jones QB

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

21.5 Completions O -125U -102

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 52.4% Over

Season avg: 21.6
Graph avg: 19.6
Graph median: 19.05–31
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds204.2▼-34.3

Att35.2▲+5.7

Cmp%61.4%▼-6.6

Pass TD0.6▼-0.9

INT0.8▲+0.2

Rush Yds5.0▼-7.6

Snaps65.4▲+7.2

Snap %100.0%▲+8.5

21.5

2025

31

Nov 02
19

Nov 09
19

Nov 23
14

Nov 30
5

Dec 07
2026

19

Sep 13
22

Sep 20
24

Sep 27
19

Oct 04
24

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 21.5

Home 50% 7/14 · avg 20.8
Away 64% 9/14 · avg 21.0
vs TEN 0% 0/2 · avg 19.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 19.5 40% 4/10
O 20.5 40% 4/10
O 21.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 22.5 30% 3/10
O 23.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds253.2#7
Yds/Att8.4#2
Cmp%71.1%#3
Pass TD1.6#12
Pass Att30.1#27

QBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced TEN this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.4

Avg diff %+4%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	C.J. Stroud	26	23.2	+12%
Oct 04	Lamar Jackson	15	17.7	-15%
Sep 27	Jameis Winston	14	20.7	-32%
Sep 20	Jalen Hurts	26	15.8	+65%
Sep 13	Geno Smith	19	20.8	-8%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.7 yds	4%17.9 yds	5%10.2 yds
Short	36%6.2 yds	15%6.1 yds	31%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 21.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	24	Over	19.5	71 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	19	Under	20.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	24	Over	20.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	22	Over	21.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	19	Under	22.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	5	Under	22.5	16 (23%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	14	Under	18.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	19	Under	20.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	19	Under	17.5	77 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	31	Over	22.5	78 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 21.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.