NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jacoby Brissett QB

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

23.5 Completions O -111U -115

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 26.4
Graph avg: 24.3
Graph median: 23.516–38
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds222.0▼-18.4

Att39.8▲+5.2

Cmp%66.3%▲+1.4

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT1.0▲+0.4

Rush Yds12.4▲+0.4

Snaps70.2▲+12.2

Snap %100.0%▲+14.3

23.5

2025

25

Dec 07
27

Dec 14
16

Dec 21
21

Dec 28
22

Jan 04
2026

27

Sep 13
17

Sep 20
38

Sep 27
21

Oct 04
29

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 23.5

Home 38% 5/13 · avg 18.5
Away 38% 5/13 · avg 23.2
vs LAR 50% 1/2 · avg 23.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 21.5 60% 6/10
O 22.5 50% 5/10
O 23.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 24.5 50% 5/10
O 25.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds206.1#26
Yds/Att6.5#23
Cmp%58.4%#30
Pass TD1.7#9
Pass Att31.5#20

QBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAR this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-4.3

Avg diff %-20%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Josh Allen	12	19.8	-39%
Oct 04	Jalen Hurts	12	19.2	-38%
Sep 27	Bo Nix	17	19.4	-12%
Sep 21	Jameis Winston	11	21.7	-49%
Sep 10	Brock Purdy	25	18.2	+37%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	1%11.0 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	34%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 23.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	29	Over	24.5	73 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	21	Under	22.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	38	Over	22.5	87 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	17	Under	21.5	50 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	27	Over	21.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	22	Under	20.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	21	Under	24.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	16	Under	17.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	27	Over	27.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	25	Over	24.5	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 23.5Underdog 23.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.