NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cam Ward QB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

19.5 Completions O -135U +100

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 50%5/10 Odds imply 53.5% Over

Season avg: 19.6
Graph avg: 16.9
Graph median: 19.03–26
Over the close: 100%2/2

2026 per game

Pass Yds179.2▼-7.2

Att31.0▼-0.8

Cmp%63.2%▲+3.4

Pass TD0.6▼-0.3

INT0.6▲+0.2

Rush Yds11.8▲+2.4

Snaps58.0▼-1.2

Snap %100.0%▲+5.4

19.5

2025

12

Sep 07
10

Sep 28
21

Oct 05
26

Oct 12
22

Oct 26
14

Dec 07
18

Dec 14
3

Jan 04
2026

23

Sep 27
20

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 19.5

Home 67% 8/12 · avg 21.0
Away 50% 5/10 · avg 16.9
vs IND 100% 2/2 · avg 22.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 17.5 60% 6/10
O 18.5 50% 5/10
O 19.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 20.5 40% 4/10
O 21.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds262.1#3
Yds/Att7.8#7
Cmp%62.3%#22
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att33.7#9

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.3

Avg diff %-5%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	22	22.0	+0%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	3	15.0	-80%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	16	25.8	-38%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	32	16.7	+92%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	17	17.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	11%4.2 yds	41%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 19.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	20	Over	19.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	23	Over	17.5	60 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	3	Under	—	5 (9%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	18	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	14	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ IND	22	Over	—	71 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ LV	26	Over	—	61 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ ARI	21	Over	—	67 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ HOU	10	Under	—	50 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ DEN	12	Under	—	57 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 8m ago.