NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Justin Herbert QB

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

18.5 Completions O -109U -117

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 49.2% Over

Season avg: 17.0
Graph avg: 17.9
Graph median: 19.012–23
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds187.4▼-41.2

Att28.6▼-3.3

Cmp%59.4%▼-6.7

Pass TD1.0▼-0.5

INT1.4▲+0.6

Rush Yds28.4▼-4.2

Snaps66.0▲+1.1

Snap %100.0%▲+3.0

18.5

2025

12

Dec 08
19

Dec 14
23

Dec 21
21

Dec 27
19

Jan 11
2026

17

Sep 13
15

Sep 20
20

Sep 27
19

Oct 04
14

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 19.6
Away 70% 14/20 · avg 19.9
vs KC 75% 3/4 · avg 20.2

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 16.5 70% 7/10
O 17.5 60% 6/10
O 18.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 19.5 30% 3/10
O 20.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds216.4#21
Yds/Att6.4#27
Cmp%61.8%#24
Pass TD1.1#27
Pass Att33.8#8

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.9

Avg diff %+24%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Kirk Cousins	31	20.2	+53%
Sep 27	Malik Willis	20	13.2	+51%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	22	21.5	+2%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	17	19.4	-12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%14.4 yds	2%13.6 yds	8%7.3 yds
Short	26%7.4 yds	16%6.2 yds	39%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	14	Under	18.5	67 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	19	Over	18.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	20	Over	20.5	69 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	15	Under	19.5	68 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	17	Under	20.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	19	Over	17.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	21	Over	19.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	23	Over	23.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	19	Over	19.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	12	Under	12.5	74 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 18.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.