NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

22.5 Completions O -113U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 40%4/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 23.8
Graph avg: 20.7
Graph median: 22.06–30
Over the close: 60%6/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds280.4▲+61.5

Att37.0▲+5.6

Cmp%64.3%▲+1.8

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds14.2▲+0.4

Snaps66.8▲+3.6

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

22.5

2025

13

Sep 15
22

Sep 28
30

Oct 26
6

Nov 02
22

Dec 14
23

Dec 21
14

Jan 04
2026

26

Sep 13
30

Sep 20
21

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 21.4
Away 33% 7/21 · avg 19.2
vs JAX 67% 2/3 · avg 24.7

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 20.5 70% 7/10
O 21.5 60% 6/10
O 22.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 23.5 30% 3/10
O 24.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.2#11
Yds/Att6.9#20
Cmp%64.6%#12
Pass TD0.8#31
Pass Att35.6#4

QBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main QB who faced JAX this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.3

Avg diff %+11%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jalen Hurts	21	17.0	+24%
Oct 04	Joe Burrow	39	24.0	+62%
Sep 27	Drake Maye	14	21.2	-34%
Sep 20	Bo Nix	22	18.4	+20%
Sep 13	Deshaun Watson	16	19.8	-19%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	3%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.5 yds	22%8.2 yds	35%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	21	Under	21.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	30	Over	19.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	26	Over	19.5	79 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	14	Under	18.5	44 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	23	Over	20.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	22	Under	20.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	6	Under	20.5	23 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	30	Over	20.5	80 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	22	Under	19.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	13	Under	21.5	49 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 22.5Underdog 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.