NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

22.5 Completions O -113U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 40%4/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 23.8
Graph avg: 20.7
Graph median: 21.515–26
Over the close: 44%4/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds280.4▲+61.5

Att37.0▲+5.6

Cmp%64.3%▲+1.8

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds14.2▲+0.4

Snaps66.8▲+3.6

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

22.5

2025

25

Sep 21
23

Oct 05
23

Oct 20
22

Nov 30
15

Dec 07
16

Dec 27
21

Jan 12
20

Jan 18
2026

16

Sep 27
26

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 21.4
Away 33% 7/21 · avg 19.2
vs JAX 67% 2/3 · avg 24.7

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 20.5 60% 6/10
O 21.5 50% 5/10
O 22.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 23.5 20% 2/10
O 24.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.2#11
Yds/Att6.9#20
Cmp%64.6%#12
Pass TD0.8#31
Pass Att35.6#4

QBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main QB who faced JAX this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.3

Avg diff %+11%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jalen Hurts	21	17.0	+24%
Oct 04	Joe Burrow	39	24.0	+62%
Sep 27	Drake Maye	14	21.2	-34%
Sep 20	Bo Nix	22	18.4	+20%
Sep 13	Deshaun Watson	16	19.8	-19%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	3%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.5 yds	22%8.2 yds	35%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	26	Over	21.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	16	Under	20.5	54 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	20	Under	20.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	21	Under	20.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	16	Under	18.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	15	Under	16.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	22	Under	25.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	23	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	23	Over	19.5	56 (80%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	25	Over	23.5	63 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 22.5Underdog 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.