NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Drake Maye QB

NE vs NYJ · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

20.5 Completions O -101U -126

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 40%4/10 Odds imply 47.4% Over

Season avg: 19.8
Graph avg: 19.6
Graph median: 18.014–27
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.6▼-3.1

Att30.2▲+1.1

Cmp%65.6%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.6▼-0.2

INT1.4▲+0.8

Rush Yds32.2▲+2.3

Snaps65.6▲+3.0

Snap %96.2%▼-0.4

20.5

2025

19

Nov 02
25

Nov 13
24

Dec 01
14

Dec 14
14

Jan 04
17

Jan 11
16

Jan 18
27

Feb 08
2026

14

Sep 20
26

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 20.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 18.7
Away 53% 10/19 · avg 19.7
vs NYJ 25% 1/4 · avg 12.8

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 18.5 50% 5/10
O 19.5 40% 4/10
O 20.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 21.5 40% 4/10
O 22.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds228.7#16
Yds/Att7.2#13
Cmp%66.1%#8
Pass TD2.2#4
Pass Att31.6#18

QBs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main QB who faced NYJ this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.4

Avg diff %+26%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Deshaun Watson	15	20.0	-25%
Oct 04	Tyson Bagent	25	8.5	+194%
Sep 27	Jared Goff	25	25.8	-3%
Sep 20	Jordan Love	16	24.0	-33%
Sep 13	Cam Ward	19	19.8	-4%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%10.4 yds	3%10.5 yds	11%13.6 yds
Short	31%5.8 yds	15%7.4 yds	27%6.1 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#17	4%14.6 yds#18	8%13.0 yds#8
Short	32%5.6 yds#20	20%6.9 yds#16	28%6.2 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%11.0 yds	3%9.4 yds	11%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.6 yds	16%7.4 yds	26%6.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
2	Romeo Doubs WR	5	4.6	23	15.3%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	5	4.4	22	14.6%
4	Hunter Henry TE	5	3.8	19	13.4%
5	A.J. Brown WR	1	4.0	4	12.9%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	5	3.8	19	12.5%
7	Efton Chism III WR	4	3.2	13	10.5%
8	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
9	Eli Raridon TE	4	2.2	9	7.4%
10	Kyle Williams WR	5	2.0	10	7.0%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 20.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	26	Over	19.5	75 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	14	Under	20.5	55 (100%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	27	Over	19.5	71 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	16	Under	19.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	17	Under	17.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	14	Under	14.5	45 (76%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	14	Under	16.5	52 (100%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	24	Over	23.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	25	Over	25.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	19	Under	19.5	68 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.