NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Matthew Stafford QB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

23.5 Completions O -117U -109

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 70%7/10 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 27.8
Graph avg: 24.9
Graph median: 24.515–40
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds314.4▲+32.2

Att43.2▲+7.4

Cmp%64.4%▲+0.9

Pass TD1.8▼-0.8

INT1.2▲+0.8

Rush Yds4.2▲+3.4

Snaps73.0▲+6.4

Snap %96.8%▼-2.0

23.5

2025

29

Sep 28
30

Oct 02
24

Nov 02
15

Nov 16
25

Nov 23
24

Dec 14
25

Jan 04
2026

15

Sep 10
22

Sep 21
40

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 23.5

Home 55% 11/20 · avg 23.4
Away 35% 8/23 · avg 22.1
vs ARI 25% 1/4 · avg 20.8

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 21.5 80% 8/10
O 22.5 70% 7/10
O 23.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 24.5 50% 5/10
O 25.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds258.8#4
Yds/Att8.3#3
Cmp%66.1%#10
Pass TD2.8#1
Pass Att31.0#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: completions in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.8

Avg diff %-16%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jared Goff	19	27.2	-30%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	18	19.3	-7%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	15	20.8	-28%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	17	17.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	17%8.0 yds	33%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Completions	vs 23.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	40	Over	23.5	82 (100%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	22	Under	21.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	15	Under	22.5	51 (84%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	25	Over	22.5	72 (96%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	24	Over	24.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	25	Over	28.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	15	Under	24.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	24	Over	26.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	30	Over	25.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	29	Over	22.5	75 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 23.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.