NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jacoby Brissett QB

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

37.5 Pass Att O -117U -109

Hit rate · Last 10 40%4/10 Odds imply 50.8% Over

Season avg: 39.8
Graph avg: 38.2
Graph median: 37.028–52
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds222.0▼-18.4

Att39.8▲+5.2

Cmp%66.3%▲+1.4

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT1.0▲+0.4

Rush Yds12.4▲+0.4

Snaps70.2▲+12.2

Snap %100.0%▲+14.3

37.5

2025

44

Dec 07
40

Dec 14
31

Dec 21
37

Dec 28
31

Jan 04
2026

37

Sep 13
28

Sep 20
52

Sep 27
35

Oct 04
47

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 37.5

Home 31% 4/13 · avg 29.2
Away 38% 5/13 · avg 35.8
vs LAR 50% 1/2 · avg 37.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 35.5 60% 6/10
O 36.5 60% 6/10
O 37.5 Today 40% 4/10
O 38.5 40% 4/10
O 39.5 40% 4/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds206.1#26
Yds/Att6.5#23
Cmp%58.4%#30
Pass TD1.7#9
Pass Att31.5#20

QBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAR this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.7

Avg diff %-8%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Josh Allen	19	29.8	-36%
Oct 04	Jalen Hurts	27	31.8	-15%
Sep 27	Bo Nix	34	31.0	+10%
Sep 21	Jameis Winston	27	35.0	-23%
Sep 10	Brock Purdy	34	27.0	+26%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	1%11.0 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	34%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 37.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	47	Over	37.5	73 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	35	Under	34.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	52	Over	33.5	87 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	28	Under	34.5	50 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	37	Under	34.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	31	Under	37.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	37	Under	37.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	31	Under	33.5	57 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	40	Over	41.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	44	Over	39.5	62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 37.5Underdog 37.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.