NFL Prop Research

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Game logs through Oct 15, 2026 · 181 players

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs LAC ·

30.5 Pass Att O -136U +102
Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 80%8/10 Odds imply 53.8% Over
Season avg
32.0
Graph avg
35.4
Graph median
35.524–45
Over the close
38%3/8
2026 per game
Pass Yds259.2â–²+3.0
Att32.0â–¼-3.9
Cmp%64.1%â–²+1.3
Pass TD2.2â–²+0.7
INT0.5â–¼-0.3
Rush Yds10.2â–¼-19.9
Snaps65.2â–¼-1.5
Snap %100.0%â–²+2.6
Under 30.5 in 2 straight
Patrick Mahomes pass attempts by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 30.5.
30.5
  1. 2024
    38
  2. 32
  3. 2025
    39
  4. 37
  5. 41
  6. 34
  7. 45
  8. 34
  9. 2026
    24
  10. 30
  11. ?

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

  • Home 60% 12/20 · avg 35.0
  • Away 76% 13/17 · avg 35.0
  • vs LAC 50% 2/4 · avg 33.2

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

  • O 28.5 90% 9/10
  • O 29.5 90% 9/10
  • O 30.5 Today 80% 8/10
  • O 31.5 80% 8/10
  • O 32.5 70% 7/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass YdsYds/AttCmp%Pass TDPass Att
  • Pass Yds214.4#23
  • Yds/Att7.5#8
  • Cmp%62.9%#20
  • Pass TD1.2#24
  • Pass Att28.6#30

QBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAC this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.5
Avg diff %-17%
Beat their average0% (0/5)
DatePlayerResultTheir avgDiff
Oct 11 Bo Nix2732.4-17%
Oct 04 Sam Darnold2231.8-31%
Sep 27 Josh Allen2628.0-7%
Sep 20 Kirk Cousins2935.8-19%
Sep 13 Jacoby Brissett3740.5-9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep5%13.9 yds5%10.5 yds8%12.4 yds
Short28%5.9 yds17%4.9 yds38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep9%16.8 yds#13%12.0 yds#264%12.9 yds#9
Short33%6.1 yds#1017%6.6 yds#1934%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
DepthLeftMiddleRight
Deep6%14.2 yds6%13.7 yds10%10.1 yds
Short26%6.1 yds17%5.5 yds36%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Target share · KC 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#PlayerGPTgt/gTotalShare
1Rashee Rice WR35.71720.4%
2Xavier Worthy WR45.52218.7%
3Travis Kelce TE45.52217.3%
4Kenneth Walker III RB44.81914.9%
5Tyquan Thornton WR43.81512.9%
6Noah Gray TE42.087.6%
7Emmett Johnson RB41.254.1%
8Jalen Royals WR41.254.1%
9Cyrus Allen WR21.023.9%
10Jake Briningstool TE30.722.8%

Game log · 10 games

DateWkOppPass Attvs 30.5CloseSnaps
2026-10-044@ LV30Under32.560 (100%)
2026-09-273@ MIA24Under30.552 (100%)
2025-11-2713@ DAL34Over34.566 (100%)
2025-11-1611@ DEN45Over47.570 (100%)
2025-11-029@ BUF34Over34.560 (100%)
2025-10-065@ JAX41Over39.564 (100%)
2025-09-213@ NYG37Over34.572 (100%)
2025-09-051@ LAC39Over35.561 (100%)
2025-02-0922 (P)@ PHI32Over—56 (100%)
2024-12-2517@ PIT38Over—62 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 31.5Underdog 31.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 14m ago.