NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Geno Smith QB

NYJ vs NE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -116U -110

Hit rate · Last 10 · Home 50%5/10 Odds imply 50.6% Over

Season avg: 29.4
Graph avg: 33.2
Graph median: 34.521–44
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds216.8▲+15.1

Att29.4▼-0.5

Cmp%69.4%▲+2.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-1.1

Rush Yds8.6▲+1.3

Snaps61.8▲+4.3

Snap %100.0%▲+3.5

30.5

2025

43

Sep 15
21

Sep 28
23

Oct 12
39

Nov 02
42

Nov 17
44

Nov 23
21

Dec 07
28

Dec 28
2026

41

Sep 20
30

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 33.6
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 29.7
vs NE 100% 2/2 · avg 39.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 60% 6/10
O 29.5 60% 6/10
O 30.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 31.5 50% 5/10
O 32.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NE

What NE allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds195.6#29
Yds/Att5.9#31
Cmp%59.3%#29
Pass TD1.0#28
Pass Att33.4#10

QBs vs NE · 2026

Each main QB who faced NE this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.5

Avg diff %-16%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Kirk Cousins	28	36.0	-22%
Oct 04	Josh Allen	33	26.2	+26%
Sep 27	Trevor Lawrence	29	28.5	+2%
Sep 20	Aaron Rodgers	39	36.2	+8%
Sep 09	Sam Darnold	2	36.8	-95%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.0 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%12.7 yds
Short	37%5.3 yds	10%4.5 yds	40%5.0 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds#29	4%10.5 yds#31	4%10.0 yds#22
Short	32%5.2 yds#27	17%7.7 yds#12	36%4.4 yds#31

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.8 yds	3%15.4 yds	6%12.2 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	16%7.4 yds	37%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	5	8.4	42	30.1%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	5	4.2	21	16.1%
4	Mason Taylor TE	2	3.0	6	11.7%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	5	2.8	14	10.7%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Tim Patrick WR	1	3.0	3	10.3%
8	Braelon Allen RB	5	2.2	11	8.5%
9	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CLE	30	Under	31.5	70 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	41	Over	30.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	28	Under	37.5	53 (90%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	21	Under	32.5	37 (74%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	44	Over	39.5	79 (100%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	42	Over	44.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	39	Over	34.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	23	Under	30.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	21	Under	33.5	52 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	43	Over	40.5	70 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.