NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs JAX · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

36.5 Pass Att O -106U -120

Hit rate · Last 10 · Away 30%3/10 Odds imply 48.5% Over

Season avg: 37.0
Graph avg: 34.8
Graph median: 33.027–49
Over the close: 33%3/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds280.4▲+61.5

Att37.0▲+5.6

Cmp%64.3%▲+1.8

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds14.2▲+0.4

Snaps66.8▲+3.6

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

36.5

2025

38

Sep 21
27

Oct 05
49

Oct 20
35

Nov 30
31

Dec 07
28

Dec 27
32

Jan 12
47

Jan 18
2026

27

Sep 27
34

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 36.5

Home 32% 6/19 · avg 32.6
Away 19% 4/21 · avg 31.5
vs JAX 67% 2/3 · avg 37.3

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 34.5 40% 4/10
O 35.5 30% 3/10
O 36.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 37.5 30% 3/10
O 38.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.2#11
Yds/Att6.9#20
Cmp%64.6%#12
Pass TD0.8#31
Pass Att35.6#4

QBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main QB who faced JAX this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.0

Avg diff %+9%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jalen Hurts	40	28.5	+40%
Oct 04	Joe Burrow	54	33.8	+60%
Sep 27	Drake Maye	25	31.5	-21%
Sep 20	Bo Nix	31	31.6	-2%
Sep 13	Deshaun Watson	22	31.5	-30%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	2%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.4 yds	22%8.3 yds	35%5.6 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.0 yds#18	3%17.3 yds#9	9%13.6 yds#6
Short	34%5.6 yds#21	14%5.5 yds#28	31%5.2 yds#24

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.9 yds	3%20.3 yds	9%8.8 yds
Short	24%5.5 yds	22%8.2 yds	35%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	3	8.3	25	26.3%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	5	6.2	31	18.5%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	5	6.2	31	16.3%
4	Kayshon Boutte WR	5	3.6	18	10.8%
5	Jaylin Noel WR	5	3.4	17	10.0%
6	Jared Wayne WR	4	3.0	12	8.2%
7	Foster Moreau TE	5	2.4	12	7.7%
8	Woody Marks RB	5	2.6	13	6.9%
9	David Montgomery RB	5	1.4	7	4.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 36.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ TEN	34	Under	31.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	27	Under	32.5	54 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	47	Over	31.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	32	Under	34.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	28	Under	30.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	31	Under	32.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	35	Under	39.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	49	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	27	Under	30.5	56 (80%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	38	Over	31.5	63 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 35.5PrizePicks 36

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.